Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003-2020

Narayan, Paresh Kumar, Narayan, Seema and Prasad, Biman Chand 2008, Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003-2020, International journal of social economics, vol. 35, no. 12, pp. 1005-1016.

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Title Forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, 2003-2020
Author(s) Narayan, Paresh Kumar
Narayan, Seema
Prasad, Biman Chand
Journal name International journal of social economics
Volume number 35
Issue number 12
Start page 1005
End page 1016
Publisher Emerald Group Publishing
Place of publication Bradford, England
Publication date 2008
ISSN 0306-8293
1758-6712
Keyword(s) exports
imports
forecasting
Fiji
macroeconomics
Summary Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to forecast Fiji's exports and imports for the period 2003-2020.

Design/methodology/approach – To achieve the goal of this paper, the autoregressive moving average with explanatory variables (ARMAX) model was applied. To this end, the paper drew on the published export demand model and the import demand model of Narayan and Narayan for Fiji.

Findings – The paper's main findings are: Fiji's imports will outperform exports over the 2003-2020 period; and current account deficits will escalate to be around F$934.4 million on average over the 2003-2020 period.

Originality/value – Exports and imports are crucial for macroeconomic policymaking. It measures the degree of openness of a country and it signals the trade balance and current account balances. This has implications for inflation and exchange rate. By forecasting Fiji's exports and imports, the paper provides policy makers with a set of information that will be useful for devising macroeconomic policies.
Language eng
Field of Research 140303 Economic Models and Forecasting
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
HERDC collection year 2008
Copyright notice ©2008, Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30017821

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: School of Accounting, Economics and Finance
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