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Determinants of female fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001 : empirical evidence from cointegration and variance decomposition analysis

Narayan, Paresh Kumar 2006, Determinants of female fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001 : empirical evidence from cointegration and variance decomposition analysis, Asian economic journal, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 393-407.

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Title Determinants of female fertility in Taiwan, 1966–2001 : empirical evidence from cointegration and variance decomposition analysis
Author(s) Narayan, Paresh Kumar
Journal name Asian economic journal
Volume number 20
Issue number 4
Start page 393
End page 407
Publisher Wiley Blackwell Publishing Asia
Place of publication Carlton, Vic.
Publication date 2006
ISSN 1351-3958
1467-8381
Keyword(s) Taiwan
fertility
cointegration
bounds testing approach
J13
C22
C52
Summary This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in Taiwan over the period 1966–2001. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in Taiwan's fertility model are real income, infant mortality rate, female education and female labor force participation rate. The test for cointegration is based on the recently developed bounds testing procedure while the long-run and short-run elasticities are based on the autoregressive distributed lag model. Among our key results, female education and female labor force participation rate are found to be the key determinants of fertility in Taiwan in the long run. The variance decom-position analysis indicates that in the long run approximately 45percent of the variation in fertility is explained by the combined impact of female labor force participation, mortality and income, implying that socioeconomic development played an important role in the fertility transition in Taiwan. This result is consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis.
Notes Published Online: 14 Dec 2006
Language eng
Field of Research 140305 Time-Series Analysis
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30018599

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: School of Accounting, Economics and Finance
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Created: Wed, 09 Sep 2009, 14:00:56 EST by Liz Hau