An econometric analysis of the determinants of fertility for China, 1952-2000

Narayan, Paresh Kumar and Peng, Xiujian 2006, An econometric analysis of the determinants of fertility for China, 1952-2000, Journal of Chinese economic and business studies, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 165-183.

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Title An econometric analysis of the determinants of fertility for China, 1952-2000
Author(s) Narayan, Paresh Kumar
Peng, Xiujian
Journal name Journal of Chinese economic and business studies
Volume number 4
Issue number 2
Start page 165
End page 183
Publisher Routledge
Place of publication London, England
Publication date 2006-07
ISSN 1476-5284
1476-5292
Keyword(s) Chinese economics
economics
China
fertility transition
cointegration
family planning policy
social economic development
Summary This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development - consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis - played a key role in China's fertility transition.
Language eng
Field of Research 130203 Economics, Business and Management Curriculum and Pedagogy
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2006, Routledge
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30018631

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: School of Accounting, Economics and Finance
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