Modelling the UK burden of cardiovascular disease to 2020
Capewell, Simon, Allender, Steven, Critchley, Julia, Lloyd-Williams, Ffion, O'Flaherty, Martin, Rayner, Mike and Scarborough, Peter 2009, Modelling the UK burden of cardiovascular disease to 2020, Cardio & Vascular Coalition and the British Heart Foundation, London, England.
Cardio & Vascular Coalition and the British Heart Foundation
Place of Publication
This new research report demonstrates the scale of the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) - shown to be large, costly, and increasing. Whilst mortality from CVD has fallen, an increasing population over the next decade will create further demands on services as the actual numbers of people living with CVD climb higher.
CONTENTS -- FOREWORD 2 -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 -- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 9 -- PREFACE 10 1. THE BURDEN OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE (CVD) IN THE UK 12 • CVD Mortality 12 • CVD Definitions 14 • Diagnoses of CVD 19 • Premature Mortality 20 • Morbidity 21 • CVD Prevalence 23 • CVD Treatment Trends 27 • Economic Costs of CVD 29 • International Comparisons 30 2. THE COMPLEXITY OF THE CVD BURDEN 31 • Risk Factors for CVD 31 • Prevention 34 • Social Inequalities 36 • Ethnic Inequalities 36 • National & Regional Inequalities 37 3. ESTIMATING THE CHANGING BURDEN OF CVD: 2010 TO 2020 40 • Population Estimates 40 • Gender Specific Population Changes 40 • Recent Trends in Age Specific Rates 42 • Projections to 2020 43 4. THE CHALLENGE OF PREDICTING & MINIMISING THE FUTURE CVD BURDEN 51 • Introduction to CVD modelling 51 • Systematic Review of Available CVD Models 52 • Main CHD Models 59 • Main Stroke Models 62 • Other Relevant Work Currently Taking Place 69 • Using CVD Policy Models to Address Challenging Policy Issues 78 • What Needs to be Included in a Large-scale Modelling Exercise 78 • Desirable Interventions and Scenarios to Model 85 • Delivering a Model to Predict Future CVD Burden 87 • Dissemination of Results via heartstats.org 89 RECOMMENDATIONS 90 -- THE AUTHORS 91 -- REFERENCES 94 -- APPENDICES 106 -- • Glossary 106 -- • Useful Websites 112
Field of Research
111799 Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified
Socio Economic Objective
970111 Expanding Knowledge in the Medical and Health Sciences
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