Overview of risk prediction models in cardiovascular disease research

Cui, Jisheng 2009, Overview of risk prediction models in cardiovascular disease research, Annals of epidemiology, vol. 19, no. 10, pp. 711-717.

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Title Overview of risk prediction models in cardiovascular disease research
Author(s) Cui, Jisheng
Journal name Annals of epidemiology
Volume number 19
Issue number 10
Start page 711
End page 717
Publisher Elsevier Inc.
Place of publication Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Publication date 2009-10
ISSN 1047-2797
1873-2585
Keyword(s) assessment
calibration
discrimination
risk prediction
Summary Many risk prediction models have been developed for cardiovascular diseases in different countries during the past three decades. However, there has not been consistent agreement regarding how to appropriately assess a risk prediction model, especially when new markers are added to an established risk prediction model. Researchers often use the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) to assess the discriminatory ability of a risk prediction model. However, recent studies suggest that this method has serious limitations and cannot be the sole approach to evaluate the usefulness of a new marker in clinical and epidemiological studies. To overcome the shortcomings of this traditional method, new assessment methods have been proposed. The aim of this article is to overview various risk prediction models for cardiovascular diseases, to describe the receiver operating characteristic curve method and discuss some new assessment methods proposed recently. Some of the methods were illustrated with figures from a cardiovascular disease study in Australia.
Language eng
Field of Research 111706 Epidemiology
Socio Economic Objective 920502 Health Related to Ageing
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2009, Elsevier Inc.
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30022825

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Public Health Research, Evaluation, and Policy Cluster
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Created: Fri, 29 Jan 2010, 12:10:49 EST by Sally Morrigan

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