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The accuracy of housing forecasting in Australia

Mills, Anthony, Harris, David and Skitmore, Martin 2003, The accuracy of housing forecasting in Australia, Engineering, construction and architectural management, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 245-253.

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Title The accuracy of housing forecasting in Australia
Author(s) Mills, Anthony
Harris, David
Skitmore, Martin
Journal name Engineering, construction and architectural management
Volume number 10
Issue number 4
Start page 245
End page 253
Total pages 9
Publisher Emerald Group Publishing
Place of publication Bingley, England
Publication date 2003
ISSN 0969-9988
1365-232X
Keyword(s) Australia
building services
construction industry
forecasting
housing
Summary Forecasting is an integral part of all business planning, and forecasting the outlook for housing is of interest to many firms in the housing construction sector. This research measures the performance of a number of industry forecasting bodies; this is done to provide users with an indicator of the value of housing forecasting undertaken in Australia. The accuracy of housing commencement forecasts of three Australian organisations – the Housing Industry Association (HIA), the Indicative Planning Council for the Housing Industry (IPC) and BIS-Shrapnel – is examined through the empirical analysis of their published forecasts supplemented by qualitative data in the form of opinions elicited from several industry “experts” employed in these organisations. Forecasting performance was determined by comparing the housing commencement forecast with the actual data collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on an ex-post basis. Although the forecasts cover different time periods, the level of accuracy is similar, at around 11-13 per cent for four-quarter-ahead forecasts. In addition, national forecasts are more accurate than forecasts for individual states. This is the first research that has investigated the accuracy of both private and public sector forecasting of housing construction in Australia. This allows users of the information to better understand the performance of various forecasting organisations.
Notes Reproduced with the kind permission of the copyright owner.
Language eng
Field of Research 120503 Housing Markets, Development, Management
Socio Economic Objective 970112 Expanding Knowledge in Built Environment and Design
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2003, MCB UP
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30037114

Document type: Journal Article
Collections: School of Architecture and Built Environment
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Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.