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Predicting changes to seascapes under future climate, with the Coorong as a case study

Fairweather, P. G. and Lester, R. E. 2009, Predicting changes to seascapes under future climate, with the Coorong as a case study, in AMSA 2009 : 46th Annual Conference of the Australian Marine Sciences Association, 5-9 July 2009, Adelaide, South Australia, [Australian Marine Sciences Association], [Adelaide, S. Aust.].

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Title Predicting changes to seascapes under future climate, with the Coorong as a case study
Author(s) Fairweather, P. G.
Lester, R. E.
Conference name Australian Marine Sciences Association. Conference (46th : 2009 : Adelaide, S. Aust.)
Conference location Adelaide, S. Aust.
Conference dates 5-9 Jul. 2009
Title of proceedings AMSA 2009 : 46th Annual Conference of the Australian Marine Sciences Association, 5-9 July 2009, Adelaide, South Australia
Editor(s) [Unknown]
Publication date 2009
Conference series Australian Marine Sciences Association. Conference
Publisher [Australian Marine Sciences Association]
Place of publication [Adelaide, S. Aust.]
Summary The marine and estuarine ecosystems of South Australia are likely to alter significantly in response to a changing climate, but also in response to managerial decisions we make. The allocation of fishing effort is an example of one such decision. We summarise some projections on a state-wide basis for how different components of these ecosystems may be expected to change. We anticipate that tropical elements will expand in range but cold-temperate communities will contract or disappear from South Australia. As a specific example, we have modelled the ecosystem states of the Coorong and the Murray Mouth. We combined biological and physico-chemical components of an ecosystem into co-occurring units (termed ecosystem states) with well-defined thresholds between them. Predictions were then made using time series of inputs from modelled water flows and other predictors. Using this model, we will discuss the likely implication of a range of climate change and management scenarios, highlighting the potential impact on the commercial fishing opportunities. Specifically we will discuss the potential sensitivity of the fishery to climate changes versus various management options. Understanding these possible future changes should allow the industry to adapt before climate change reduces the sustainability of the industry.
Language eng
Field of Research 059999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified
Socio Economic Objective 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
HERDC Research category E3.1 Extract of paper
ERA Research output type E Conference publication
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30039416

Document type: Conference Paper
Collection: School of Life and Environmental Sciences
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