Modelling optimal risk allocation in PPP projects using artificial neural networks

Jin, Xiao-Hua and Zhang, Guomin 2011, Modelling optimal risk allocation in PPP projects using artificial neural networks, International journal of project management, vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 591-603.

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Title Modelling optimal risk allocation in PPP projects using artificial neural networks
Author(s) Jin, Xiao-Hua
Zhang, Guomin
Journal name International journal of project management
Volume number 29
Issue number 5
Start page 591
End page 603
Publisher Pergamon
Place of publication Oxford, United Kingdom
Publication date 2011-07
ISSN 0263-7863
Keyword(s) risk allocation
transaction cost economics
artificial neural networks
Summary This paper aims to establish, train, validate, and test artificial neural network (ANN) models for modelling risk allocation decision-making process in public-private partnership (PPP) projects, mainly drawing upon transaction cost economics. An industry-wide questionnaire survey was conducted to examine the risk allocation practice in PPP projects and collect the data for training the ANN models. The training and evaluation results, when compared with those of using traditional MLR modelling technique, show that the ANN models are satisfactory for modelling risk allocation decision-making process. The empirical evidence further verifies that it is appropriate to utilize transaction cost economics to interpret risk allocation decision-making process. It is recommended that, in addition to partners' risk management mechanism maturity level, decision-makers, both from public and private sectors, should also seriously consider influential factors including partner's risk management routines, partners' cooperation history, partners' risk management commitment, and risk management environmental uncertainty. All these factors influence the formation of optimal risk allocation strategies, either by their individual or interacting effects.
Language eng
Field of Research 120201 Building Construction Management and Project Planning
Socio Economic Objective 870501 Civil Building Management and Services
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2011, Pergamon
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Document type: Journal Article
Collection: School of Architecture and Built Environment
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