Openly accessible

Effects of infection-induced migration delays on the epidemiology of avian influenza in wild mallard populations

Galsworthy, Stephen J., ten Bosch, Quirine A., Hoye, Bethany J., Heesterbeek, Johan A. P., Klaassen, Marcel and Klinkenberg, Don 2011, Effects of infection-induced migration delays on the epidemiology of avian influenza in wild mallard populations, PLoS ONE, vol. 6, no. 10, pp. 1-11.

Attached Files
Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads
galsworthy-effectsofinfectioninduced-2011.pdf Published version application/pdf 609.49KB 12

Title Effects of infection-induced migration delays on the epidemiology of avian influenza in wild mallard populations
Author(s) Galsworthy, Stephen J.
ten Bosch, Quirine A.
Hoye, Bethany J.
Heesterbeek, Johan A. P.
Klaassen, Marcel
Klinkenberg, Don
Journal name PLoS ONE
Volume number 6
Issue number 10
Start page 1
End page 11
Total pages 11
Publisher Public Library of Science
Place of publication San Francisco, Calif.
Publication date 2011-10
ISSN 1932-6203
Summary Wild waterfowl populations form a natural reservoir of Avian Influenza (AI) virus, and fears exist that these birds may contribute to an AI pandemic by spreading the virus along their migratory flyways. Observational studies suggest that individuals infected with AI virus may delay departure from migratory staging sites. Here, we explore the epidemiological dynamics of avian influenza virus in a migrating mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population with a specific view to understanding the role of infection-induced migration delays on the spread of virus strains of differing transmissibility. We develop a host-pathogen model that combines the transmission dynamics of influenza with the migration, reproduction and mortality of the host bird species. Our modeling predicts that delayed migration of individuals influences both the timing and size of outbreaks of AI virus. We find that (1) delayed migration leads to a lower total number of cases of infection each year than in the absence of migration delay, (2) when the transmission rate of a strain is high, the outbreak starts at the staging sites at which birds arrive in the early part of the fall migration, (3) when the transmission rate is low, infection predominantly occurs later in the season, which is further delayed when there is a migration delay. As such, the rise of more virulent AI strains in waterfowl could lead to a higher prevalence of infection later in the year, which could change the exposure risk for farmed poultry. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of generation time and loss of immunity for the effect of migration delays. Thus, we demonstrate, in contrast to many current transmission risk models solely using empirical information on bird movements to assess the potential for transmission, that a consideration of infection-induced delays is critical to understanding the dynamics of AI infection along the entire flyway.
Language eng
Field of Research 060299 Ecology not elsewhere classified
Socio Economic Objective 970106 Expanding Knowledge in the Biological Sciences
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2011, The Authors
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30044358

Document type: Journal Article
Collections: School of Life and Environmental Sciences
Open Access Collection
Connect to link resolver
 
Unless expressly stated otherwise, the copyright for items in DRO is owned by the author, with all rights reserved.

Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.

Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: Scopus Citation Count Cited 6 times in Scopus
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Access Statistics: 63 Abstract Views, 12 File Downloads  -  Detailed Statistics
Created: Thu, 05 Apr 2012, 16:10:02 EST

Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.