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Major quantitative techniques for risk analysis in the construction industry : a comparative analysis

Jin, Xiaohua, Zuo, Jian and Mijatovic, Karolina 2011, Major quantitative techniques for risk analysis in the construction industry : a comparative analysis, in CITC-VI 2011 : Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Construction in the 21st Century : Construction Challenges in the New Decade, CITC-V1, Greenville, N.C., pp. 101-110.

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Title Major quantitative techniques for risk analysis in the construction industry : a comparative analysis
Author(s) Jin, Xiaohua
Zuo, Jian
Mijatovic, Karolina
Conference name International Conference on Construction in the 21st Century (6th : 2011 : Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia)
Conference location Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Conference dates 5-7 July 2011
Title of proceedings CITC-VI 2011 : Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Construction in the 21st Century : Construction Challenges in the New Decade
Editor(s) Ahmed, Syed M.
Adnan, Hamimah
Panthi, Kamalesh
Azhar, Salman
Takim, Roshana
Bozai, Gazan
Publication date 2011
Conference series International Conference on Construction in the 21st Century
Start page 101
End page 110
Total pages 10
Publisher CITC-V1
Place of publication Greenville, N.C.
Keyword(s) risk analysis
risk management
quantitative technique
comparative analysis
construction industry
Summary Risk analysis is one of the critical functions of the risk management process. It relies on a detailed understanding of risks and their possible implications. Construction projects, because of their large and complex nature, are plagued by a variety of risks which must be considered and responded to in order to ensure project success. This study conducts an extensive comparative analysis of major quantitative risk analysis techniques in the construction industry. The techniques discussed and comparatively analyzed in this report include: Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), Judgmental Risk Analysis Process (JRAP), Estimating Using Risk Analysis (ERA), Monte Carlo Simulation technique, Computer Aided Simulation for Project Appraisal and Review (CASPAR), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis technique (FMEA) and Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis and Management model (APRAM). The findings highlight the fact that each risk analysis technique addresses risks in any or all of the following areas – schedule risks, budget risks or technical risks. Through comparative analysis, it has been revealed that a majority of risk analysis techniques focus on schedule or budget risks. Very little has been documented in terms of technical risk analysis techniques. In an era where clients are demanding and expecting higher quality projects and finishes, project managers must endeavor to invest time and resources to ensure that the few existing technical risk analysis techniques are developed and further refined, and that new technical risk analysis techniques are developed to suit the current construction industries requirements.
ISBN 1884342025
Language eng
Field of Research 120201 Building Construction Management and Project Planning
Socio Economic Objective 910402 Management
HERDC Research category E1 Full written paper - refereed
HERDC collection year 2011
Copyright notice ©2011, by CITC-VI, Greenville, North Carolina, USA.
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30045476

Document type: Conference Paper
Collection: School of Architecture and Built Environment
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