Framingham risk prediction equations for incidence of cardiovascular disease using detailed measures for smoking

Mannan, Haider, Stevenson, Chris, Peeters, Anna, Walls, Helen and McNeil, John 2010, Framingham risk prediction equations for incidence of cardiovascular disease using detailed measures for smoking, Heart international, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 49-57.

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Title Framingham risk prediction equations for incidence of cardiovascular disease using detailed measures for smoking
Author(s) Mannan, Haider
Stevenson, Chris
Peeters, Anna
Walls, Helen
McNeil, John
Journal name Heart international
Volume number 5
Issue number 2
Start page 49
End page 57
Total pages 9
Publisher PagePress
Place of publication Pavia, Italy
Publication date 2010-09-16
ISSN 1826-1868
2036-2579
Keyword(s) coronary heart disease
predictive equation
detailed smoking measures
other risk factors
reduced equation
Summary Current prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence incorporate smoking as a dichotomous yes/no measure. However, the risk of CVD associated with smoking also varies with the intensity and duration of smoking and there is a strong association between time since quitting and the risk of disease onset. This study aims to develop improved risk prediction equations for CVD incidence incorporating intensity and duration of smoking and time since quitting. The risk of developing a first CVD event was evaluated using a Cox’s model for participants in the Framingham offspring cohort who attended the fourth examination (1988–92) between the ages of 30 and 74 years and were free of CVD (n=3751). The full models based on the smoking variables and other risk factors, and reduced models based on the smoking variables and non-laboratory risk factors demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and global fit. The incorporation of both time since quitting among past smokers and pack-years among current smokers resulted in better predictive performance as compared to a dichotomous current/non-smoker measure and a current/quitter/never smoker measure. Compared to never smokers, the risk of CVD incidence increased with pack-years. Risk among those quitting more than five years prior to the baseline exam and within five years prior to the baseline exam were similar and twice as high as that of never smokers. A CVD risk equation incorporating the effects of pack-years and time since quitting provides an improved tool to quantify risk and guide preventive care.
Language eng
Field of Research 119999 Medical and Health Sciences not elsewhere classified
Socio Economic Objective 970111 Expanding Knowledge in the Medical and Health Sciences
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2010, H. Mannan et al.
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30046756

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: School of Health and Social Development
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