Understanding the sources of uncertainty to reduce the risks of undesirable outcomes in large-scale freshwater ecosystem restoration projects: an example from the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

Bark, R.H., Peeters, L.J.M., Lester, R.E., Pollino, C.A., Crossman, N.D. and Kandulu, J.M. 2013, Understanding the sources of uncertainty to reduce the risks of undesirable outcomes in large-scale freshwater ecosystem restoration projects: an example from the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia, Environmental science and policy, vol. 33, pp. 97-108.

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Title Understanding the sources of uncertainty to reduce the risks of undesirable outcomes in large-scale freshwater ecosystem restoration projects: an example from the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia
Author(s) Bark, R.H.
Peeters, L.J.M.
Lester, R.E.
Pollino, C.A.
Crossman, N.D.
Kandulu, J.M.
Journal name Environmental science and policy
Volume number 33
Start page 97
End page 108
Total pages 12
Publisher Elsevier
Place of publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
Publication date 2013
ISSN 1462-9011
1873-6416
Keyword(s) ecosystem restoration
uncertainty
risk analysis
Murray–Darling
Summary There are a growing number of large-scale freshwater ecological restoration projects worldwide. Assessments of the benefits and costs of restoration often exclude an analysis of uncertainty in the modelled outcomes. To address this shortcoming we explicitly model the uncertainties associated with measures of ecosystem health in the estuary of the Murray– Darling Basin, Australia and how those measures may change with the implementation of a Basin-wide Plan to recover water to improve ecosystem health. Specifically, we compare two metrics – one simple and one more complex – to manage end-of-system flow requirements for one ecosystem asset in the Basin, the internationally important Coorong saline wetlands. Our risk assessment confirms that the ecological conditions in the Coorong are likely to improve with implementation of the Basin Plan; however, there are risks of a Type III error (where the correct answer is found for the wrong question) associated with using the simple metric for adaptive management. 
Language eng
Field of Research 050205 Environmental Management
050209 Natural Resource Management
Socio Economic Objective 960506 Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Fresh, Ground and Surface Water Environments
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30054701

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: School of Life and Environmental Sciences
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