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Sustainable construction : reliable forecasting for building construction prices

Jiang, Heng, Xu, Youquan and Liu, Chunlu 2013, Sustainable construction : reliable forecasting for building construction prices, in SB 2013 : Proceedings of the Sustainable Building and Construction Conference, Coventry University, Coventry, England, pp. 100-109.

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Title Sustainable construction : reliable forecasting for building construction prices
Author(s) Jiang, Heng
Xu, Youquan
Liu, ChunluORCID iD for Liu, Chunlu
Conference name Sustainable Building and Construction. Conference (2013 : Coventry, England)
Conference location Coventry, England
Conference dates 3-5 Jul. 2013
Title of proceedings SB 2013 : Proceedings of the Sustainable Building and Construction Conference
Editor(s) Soetanto, Robby
Tsang, Neil
Ahmed, Abdullahi
Publication date 2013
Conference series Sustainable Building and Construction Conference
Start page 100
End page 109
Total pages 10
Publisher Coventry University
Place of publication Coventry, England
Summary A reliable forecasting for future construction costs or prices would help to ensure the budget of a construction project can be well planned and limited resources can be allocated more appropriately in construction firms. Although many studies have been focused on the construction price modelling and forecasting, few researchers have considered the impacts of the global economic events and seasonality in price modelling and forecasting. In this study, an advanced multivariate modelling technique, namely the vector correction (VEC) model with dummy variables was employed and the impacts of the global economic event and seasonality were factored into the forecasting model for the building construction price in the Australian construction market. Research findings suggest that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists among the price, levels of supply and demand in the construction market. The reliability of forecasting models was examined by mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and The Theil's inequality coefficient U tests. The results of MAPE and U tests suggest that the conventional VEC model and the VEC model with dummy variable are both acceptable for forecasting building construction prices, while the VEC model that considered external impacts achieves higher prediction accuracy than the conventional VEC model does.
ISBN 9781846000492
Language eng
Field of Research 120201 Building Construction Management and Project Planning
Socio Economic Objective 870503 Residential Building Management and Services
HERDC Research category E1 Full written paper - refereed
HERDC collection year 2013
Persistent URL

Document type: Conference Paper
Collection: School of Architecture and Built Environment
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Created: Tue, 27 Aug 2013, 10:38:01 EST

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