Ripple effects of house prices : considering spatial correlations in geography and demography
Ma, Le and Liu, Chunlu 2013, Ripple effects of house prices : considering spatial correlations in geography and demography, International journal of housing markets and analysis, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 284-299, doi: 10.1108/IJHMA-05-2012-0020.
Purpose: Studies into ripple effects have previously focused on the interconnections between house price movements across cities over space and time. These interconnections were widely investigated in previous research using vector autoregression models. However, the effects generated from spatial information could not be captured by conventional vector autoregression models. This research aimed to incorporate spatial lags into a vector autoregression model to illustrate spatial-temporal interconnections between house price movements across the Australian capital cities. Design/methodology/approach: Geographic and demographic correlations were captured by assessing geographic distances and demographic structures between each pair of cities, respectively. Development scales of the housing market were also used to adjust spatial weights. Impulse response functions based on the estimated SpVAR model were further carried out to illustrate the ripple effects. Findings: The results confirmed spatial correlations exist in housing price dynamics in the Australian capital cities. The spatial correlations are dependent more on the geographic rather than the demographic information. Originality/value: This research investigated the spatial heterogeneity and autocorrelations of regional house prices within the context of demographic and geographic information. A spatial vector autoregression model was developed based on the demographic and geographic distance. The temporal and spatial effects on house prices in Australian capital cities were then depicted.
Reproduced with the kind permission of the copyright owner.
Field of Research
120201 Building Construction Management and Project Planning
Socio Economic Objective
870503 Residential Building Management and Services
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