Dynamics of childhood growth and obesity: development and validation of a quantitative mathematical model

Hall, Kevin D., Butte, Nancy F., Swinburn, Boyd A. and Chow, Carson C. 2013, Dynamics of childhood growth and obesity: development and validation of a quantitative mathematical model, Lancet diabetes & endocrinology, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 97-105.

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Title Dynamics of childhood growth and obesity: development and validation of a quantitative mathematical model
Author(s) Hall, Kevin D.
Butte, Nancy F.
Swinburn, Boyd A.
Chow, Carson C.
Journal name Lancet diabetes & endocrinology
Volume number 1
Issue number 2
Start page 97
End page 105
Total pages 9
Publisher Lancet Publishing Group
Place of publication London, England
Publication date 2013-10
ISSN 2213-8587
2213-8595
Keyword(s) childhood bodyweight
obesity interventions
Summary Background
Clinicians and policy makers need the ability to predict quantitatively how childhood bodyweight will respond to obesity interventions.

Methods
We developed and validated a mathematical model of childhood energy balance that accounts for healthy growth and development of obesity, and that makes quantitative predictions about weight-management interventions. The model was calibrated to reference body composition data in healthy children and validated by comparing model predictions with data other than those used to build the model.

Findings
The model accurately simulated the changes in body composition and energy expenditure reported in reference data during healthy growth, and predicted increases in energy intake from ages 5—18 years of roughly 1200 kcal per day in boys and 900 kcal per day in girls. Development of childhood obesity necessitated a substantially greater excess energy intake than for development of adult obesity. Furthermore, excess energy intake in overweight and obese children calculated by the model greatly exceeded the typical energy balance calculated on the basis of growth charts. At the population level, the excess weight of US children in 2003—06 was associated with a mean increase in energy intake of roughly 200 kcal per day per child compared with similar children in 1971—74. The model also suggests that therapeutic windows when children can outgrow obesity without losing weight might exist, especially during periods of high growth potential in boys who are not severely obese.

Interpretation
This model quantifies the energy excess underlying obesity and calculates the necessary intervention magnitude to achieve bodyweight change in children. Policy makers and clinicians now have a quantitative technique for understanding the childhood obesity epidemic and planning interventions to control it.

Funding
Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.
Language eng
Field of Research 111104 Public Nutrition Intervention
Socio Economic Objective 920204 Evaluation of Health Outcomes
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2013, Lancet Publishing Group
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30060417

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: School of Health and Social Development
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Created: Thu, 13 Feb 2014, 11:34:51 EST by Jane Moschetti

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