Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence

Narayan, Paresh Kumar, Sharma, Susan, Poon, Wai Ching and Westerlund, Joakim 2014, Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence, Energy economics, vol. 41, pp. 137-146, doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.11.003.

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Title Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence
Author(s) Narayan, Paresh KumarORCID iD for Narayan, Paresh Kumar
Sharma, SusanORCID iD for Sharma, Susan
Poon, Wai Ching
Westerlund, JoakimORCID iD for Westerlund, Joakim
Journal name Energy economics
Volume number 41
Start page 137
End page 146
Total pages 10
Publisher Elsevier
Place of publication Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Publication date 2014-01
ISSN 0140-9883
Keyword(s) economic growth
oil price
Summary In this paper, we test whether oil price predicts economic growth for 28 developed and 17 developing countries. We use predictability tests that account for the key features of the data, namely, persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity. Our analysis considers a large number of countries, shows evidence of more out-of-sample predictability with nominal than real oil prices, finds in-sample predictability to be independent of the use of nominal and real prices, and reveals greater evidence of predictability for developed countries.
Language eng
DOI 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.11.003
Field of Research 150202 Financial Econometrics
Socio Economic Objective 910103 Economic Growth
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2014, Elsevier
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