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A mathematical model for the spread of Strepotococcus pneumoniae with transmission dependent on serotype

Greenhalgh, David, Lamb, Karen E and Robertson, Chris 2012, A mathematical model for the spread of Strepotococcus pneumoniae with transmission dependent on serotype, Journal of Biological Dynamics, vol. 6, no. S1, pp. 72-87, doi: 10.1080/17513758.2011.592548.

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Title A mathematical model for the spread of Strepotococcus pneumoniae with transmission dependent on serotype
Author(s) Greenhalgh, David
Lamb, Karen EORCID iD for Lamb, Karen E orcid.org/0000-0001-9782-8450
Robertson, Chris
Journal name Journal of Biological Dynamics
Volume number 6
Issue number S1
Start page 72
End page 87
Total pages 16
Publisher Taylor and Francis Inc.
Place of publication London, UK
Publication date 2012
ISSN 1751-3758
Keyword(s) Steptococcus pneumoniae
Equilibrium
Global stability analysis
Effective reproduction number
Serotype
Summary We examine a mathematical model for the transmission of Streptococcus Pneumoniae amongst young children when the carriage transmission coefficient depends on the serotype. Carriage means pneumococcal colonization. There are two sequence types (STs) spreading in a population each of which can be expressed as one of two serotypes. We derive the differential equation model for the carriage spread and perform an equilibrium and global stability analysis on it. A key parameter is the effective reproduction number R e. For R e ≤ 1,  there is only the carriage-free equilibrium (CFE) and the carriage will die out whatever be the starting values. For R e > 1, unless the effective reproduction numbers of the two STs are equal, in addition to the CFE there are two carriage equilibria, one for each ST. If the ST with the largest effective reproduction number is initially present, then in the long-term the carriage will tend to the corresponding equilibrium.
Language eng
DOI 10.1080/17513758.2011.592548
Field of Research 119999 Medical and Health Sciences not elsewhere classified
Socio Economic Objective 970111 Expanding Knowledge in the Medical and Health Sciences
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2012, Taylor & Francis
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30061306

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: School of Exercise and Nutrition Sciences
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