Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals

Quan, Hao, Srinivasan, Dipti and Khosravi, Abbas 2014, Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals, IEEE transactions on neural networks and learning systems, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 303-315.

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Title Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals
Author(s) Quan, Hao
Srinivasan, Dipti
Khosravi, Abbas
Journal name IEEE transactions on neural networks and learning systems
Volume number 25
Issue number 2
Start page 303
End page 315
Total pages 13
Publisher IEEE
Place of publication Piscataway, N.J.
Publication date 2014
ISSN 2162-237X
2162-2388
Keyword(s) Load forecasting
neural network (NN)
particle swarm optimization (PSO)
prediction interval (PI)
uncertainty
wind power
Summary Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.
Language eng
Field of Research 080108 Neural, Evolutionary and Fuzzy Computation
Socio Economic Objective 850699 Energy Storage, Distribution and Supply not elsewhere classified
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2014, IEEE
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30061709

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Centre for Intelligent Systems Research
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