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Expert systems modeling for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural systems at regional level

Sposito, Victor, Faggian, Robert, Romeijn, Harmen and Downey, Mark 2013, Expert systems modeling for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural systems at regional level, Open journal of applied sciences, vol. 3, no. 6, pp. 369-380, doi: 10.4236/ojapps.2013.36047.

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Title Expert systems modeling for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural systems at regional level
Author(s) Sposito, Victor
Faggian, RobertORCID iD for Faggian, Robert orcid.org/0000-0001-8750-3062
Romeijn, Harmen
Downey, Mark
Journal name Open journal of applied sciences
Volume number 3
Issue number 6
Start page 369
End page 380
Total pages 12
Publisher Scientific Research
Place of publication [U.S.A.]
Publication date 2013-10
ISSN 2165-3917
2165-3925
Keyword(s) Climate Change
Expert Systems
Analytic Hierarchy Process
Land Suitability Analysis
Chilling
Adaptation Actions
Summary Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.
Language eng
DOI 10.4236/ojapps.2013.36047
Field of Research 049999 Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified
Socio Economic Objective 970104 Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30063518

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Office of the Deputy Vice-Chancellor Research
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