Predicting which season ticket holders will renew and which will not McDonald, Heath, Karg, Adam J and Leckie, Civilai 2014, Predicting which season ticket holders will renew and which will not, European sport management quarterly, vol. 14, no. 5, pp. 503-520, doi: 10.1080/16184742.2014.944199. Attached Files Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads Title Predicting which season ticket holders will renew and which will not Author(s) McDonald, Heath Karg, Adam J orcid.org/0000-0001-5264-0163 Leckie, Civilai Journal name European sport management quarterly Volume number 14 Issue number 5 Start page 503 End page 520 Total pages 18 Publisher Routledge Place of publication London, Eng. Publication date 2014-08-15 ISSN 1618-4742 Keyword(s) customer retention purchase probability season ticket holders sport fans prediction Summary Research question: A major barrier to retaining existing customers is the difficulty in knowing who is most at risk of leaving (or ‘churning’). Given the strategic and financial importance of season ticket holders (STH) to professional sport teams, this paper examines the effectiveness of a range of variables in identifying the STH who are most likely to churn. Research methods: A longitudinal field study was undertaken to reflect actual conditions. Survey data of a professional sport team STH were collected prior to the conclusion of the season. Actual renewal data were then tracked from team records the following season. This work was replicated across five professional sport teams from the Australian Football League, with renewal predictions made and tracked for over 10,000 STH. Results and findings: The results suggest that the ‘Juster’ Scale – a simple, one-item purchase probability measure – is an effective identifier of those most at risk of churning, more than 3 months in advance. When combined with ticket utilization and tenure measures, predictive accuracy improves markedly, to the point where these three measures can be used to provide an effective early warning system for managers. Implications: Whilst there is a tendency to view STH as highly loyal, these data reinforce the importance of actively managing all customers to reduce churn. Despite their commitment, STH do churn, but those most likely to can be predicted by examining their patterns of behaviour in the current season. Efforts to retain STH need to shift their focus from transactional value assessments. Language eng DOI 10.1080/16184742.2014.944199 Field of Research 150404 Sport and Leisure Management Socio Economic Objective 910403 Marketing HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal Copyright notice ©2014, Taylor & Francis Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30066410 Document type: Journal Article Collections: Faculty of Business and Law School of Management and Marketing Related Links Link Description Connect to published version Go to link with your DU access privileges     Unless expressly stated otherwise, the copyright for items in DRO is owned by the author, with all rights reserved. Versions Version Filter Type Fri, 10 Oct 2014, 10:34:41 EST Fri, 10 Oct 2014, 11:55:55 EST Thu, 16 Oct 2014, 10:14:46 EST Thu, 16 Oct 2014, 10:30:28 EST Thu, 16 Oct 2014, 17:25:40 EST Thu, 16 Oct 2014, 17:26:52 EST Wed, 21 Jan 2015, 14:20:12 EST Wed, 21 Jan 2015, 14:20:45 EST Thu, 28 May 2015, 12:13:29 EST Tue, 01 Mar 2016, 13:50:37 EST Wed, 17 Aug 2016, 08:33:19 EST Wed, 07 Sep 2016, 07:50:02 EST Fri, 21 Apr 2017, 07:01:46 EST Mon, 12 Feb 2018, 09:30:22 EST Mon, 12 Feb 2018, 09:31:27 EST Filtered Full Citation counts:   Cited 19 times in TR Web of Science Cited 19 times in Scopus Search Google Scholar Access Statistics: 404 Abstract Views, 14 File Downloads  -  Detailed Statistics Created: Fri, 10 Oct 2014, 10:34:23 EST by Gloria Stevenson

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