Predicting which season ticket holders will renew and which will not

McDonald, Heath, Karg, Adam J and Leckie, Civilai 2014, Predicting which season ticket holders will renew and which will not, European sport management quarterly, vol. 14, no. 5, pp. 503-520, doi: 10.1080/16184742.2014.944199.

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Title Predicting which season ticket holders will renew and which will not
Author(s) McDonald, Heath
Karg, Adam JORCID iD for Karg, Adam J
Leckie, Civilai
Journal name European sport management quarterly
Volume number 14
Issue number 5
Start page 503
End page 520
Total pages 18
Publisher Routledge
Place of publication London, Eng.
Publication date 2014-08-15
ISSN 1618-4742
Keyword(s) customer retention
purchase probability
season ticket holders
Summary Research question: A major barrier to retaining existing customers is the difficulty in knowing who is most at risk of leaving (or ‘churning’). Given the strategic and financial importance of season ticket holders (STH) to professional sport teams, this paper examines the effectiveness of a range of variables in identifying the STH who are most likely to churn.
Research methods: A longitudinal field study was undertaken to reflect actual conditions. Survey data of a professional sport team STH were collected prior to the conclusion of the season. Actual renewal data were then tracked from team records the following season. This work was replicated across five professional sport teams from the Australian Football League, with renewal predictions made and tracked for over 10,000 STH.
Results and findings: The results suggest that the ‘Juster’ Scale – a simple, one-item purchase probability measure – is an effective identifier of those most at risk of churning, more than 3 months in advance. When combined with ticket utilization and tenure measures, predictive accuracy improves markedly, to the point where these three measures can be used to provide an effective early warning system for managers.
Implications: Whilst there is a tendency to view STH as highly loyal, these data reinforce the importance of actively managing all customers to reduce churn. Despite their commitment, STH do churn, but those most likely to can be predicted by examining their patterns of behaviour in the current season. Efforts to retain STH need to shift their focus from transactional value assessments.
Language eng
DOI 10.1080/16184742.2014.944199
Field of Research 150404 Sport and Leisure Management
Socio Economic Objective 910403 Marketing
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2014, Taylor & Francis
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Created: Fri, 10 Oct 2014, 10:34:23 EST by Gloria Stevenson

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