Market effects on forecasting construction prices using vector error correction models Jiang, Heng, Xu, Youquan and Liu, Chunlu 2014, Market effects on forecasting construction prices using vector error correction models, International journal of construction management, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 101-112, doi: 10.1080/15623599.2014.899128. Attached Files Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads Title Market effects on forecasting construction prices using vector error correction models Author(s) Jiang, Heng Xu, Youquan Liu, Chunlu orcid.org/0000-0003-1144-4355 Journal name International journal of construction management Volume number 14 Issue number 2 Start page 101 End page 112 Total pages 12 Publisher Taylor & Francis Place of publication Abingdon, Eng. Publication date 2014-01-01 ISSN 1562-3599 2331-2327 Keyword(s) construction price financial crisis forecasting vector error correction model Summary Construction price forecasting is an essential component to facilitate decision-making for construction contractors, investors and related financial institutions. Construction economists are increasingly interested in seeking a more analytical method to forecast construction prices. Although many studies have focused on construction price modelling and forecasting, few have considered the impacts of large-scale economic events and seasonality. In this study, an advanced multivariate modelling technique, namely the vector correction (VEC) model with dummy variables, was employed. The impacts of global economic events and seasonality are factored into the model to forecast the construction price in the Australian construction market. Research findings suggest that both long-run and dynamic short-term causal relationships exist among the price and levels of supply and demand in the construction market. These relationships drive the construction price and supply and demand, which interact with one another as a loop system. The reliability of forecasting models was examined by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the Theil's inequality coefficient U tests. The test results suggest that the conventional VEC model and the VEC model with dummy variable are both acceptable for forecasting the construction price, while the VEC model considering external impacts achieves higher prediction accuracy than the conventional VEC model. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis. Language eng DOI 10.1080/15623599.2014.899128 Field of Research 120203 Quantity Surveying Socio Economic Objective 870102 Commercial Construction Planning HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal ERA Research output type C Journal article Copyright notice ©2014, Taylor & Francis Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30067699 Document type: Journal Article Collections: Faculty of Science, Engineering and Built Environment School of Architecture and Built Environment Related Links Link Description Connect to published version Go to link with your DU access privileges     Unless expressly stated otherwise, the copyright for items in DRO is owned by the author, with all rights reserved. Versions Version Filter Type Mon, 24 Nov 2014, 16:22:02 EST Mon, 24 Nov 2014, 16:24:18 EST Tue, 25 Nov 2014, 04:02:04 EST Tue, 25 Nov 2014, 05:04:08 EST Thu, 27 Nov 2014, 15:58:58 EST Thu, 27 Nov 2014, 16:02:17 EST Tue, 09 Dec 2014, 09:13:48 EST Wed, 10 Dec 2014, 13:37:21 EST Fri, 09 Jan 2015, 10:17:47 EST Tue, 03 Mar 2015, 07:26:42 EST Wed, 19 Aug 2015, 09:15:06 EST Mon, 12 Oct 2015, 15:41:22 EST Wed, 17 Aug 2016, 08:34:49 EST Wed, 07 Sep 2016, 07:59:15 EST Mon, 12 Feb 2018, 12:24:43 EST Mon, 12 Feb 2018, 12:26:49 EST Filtered Full Citation counts:   Cited 3 times in TR Web of Science Cited 3 times in Scopus Search Google Scholar Access Statistics: 556 Abstract Views, 19 File Downloads  -  Detailed Statistics Created: Mon, 24 Nov 2014, 16:24:18 EST

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