Determining trends and environmental drivers from long-term marine mammal and seabird data : examples from Southern Australia

Chambers, Lynda E., Patterson, Toby, Hobday, Alistair J., Arnould, John P. Y., Tuck, Geoffrey N., Wilcox, Chris and Dann, Peter 2015, Determining trends and environmental drivers from long-term marine mammal and seabird data : examples from Southern Australia, Regional environmental change, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 197-209, doi: 10.1007/s10113-014-0634-8.

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Title Determining trends and environmental drivers from long-term marine mammal and seabird data : examples from Southern Australia
Author(s) Chambers, Lynda E.
Patterson, Toby
Hobday, Alistair J.
Arnould, John P. Y.ORCID iD for Arnould, John P. Y. orcid.org/0000-0003-1124-9330
Tuck, Geoffrey N.
Wilcox, Chris
Dann, Peter
Journal name Regional environmental change
Volume number 15
Issue number 1
Start page 197
End page 209
Total pages 13
Publisher Springer
Place of publication Berlin, Germany
Publication date 2015-01
ISSN 1436-3798
1436-378X
Keyword(s) Climate
Little Penguin
Marine mammal
Regression
Seabird
South-eastern Australia
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Studies
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
PENGUINS EUDYPTULA-MINOR
CLIMATE-CHANGE
FUR SEALS
BREEDING PHENOLOGY
EASTERN AUSTRALIA
STOCK ASSESSMENT
PUP PRODUCTION
BASS STRAIT
OCEAN
POPULATION
Summary Climate change is acknowledged as an emerging threat for top-order marine predators, yet obtaining evidence of impacts is often difficult. In south-eastern Australia, a marine global warming hotspot, evidence suggests that climate change will profoundly affect pinnipeds and seabirds. Long-term data series are available to assess some species' responses to climate. Researchers have measured a variety of chronological and population variables, such as laying dates, chick or pup production, colony-specific abundance and breeding success. Here, we consider the challenges in accurately assessing trends in marine predator data, using long-term data series that were originally collected for other purposes, and how these may be driven by environmental change and variability. In the past, many studies of temporal changes and environmental drivers used linear analyses and we demonstrate the (theoretical) relationship between the magnitude of a trend, its variability, and the duration of a data series required to detect a linear trend. However, species may respond to environmental change in a nonlinear manner and, based on analysis of time-series from south-eastern Australia, it appears that the assumptions of a linear model are often violated, particularly for measures of population size. The commonly measured demographic variables exhibit different degrees of variation, which influences the ability to detect climate signals. Due to their generally lower year-to-year variability, we illustrate that monitoring of variables such as mass and breeding chronology should allow detection of temporal trends earlier in a monitoring programme than observations of breeding success and population size. Thus, establishing temporal changes with respect to climate change from a monitoring programme over a relatively short time period requires careful a priori choice of biological variables. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Language eng
DOI 10.1007/s10113-014-0634-8
Field of Research 060207 Population Ecology
050206 Environmental Monitoring
060205 Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl Marine Ichthyology)
060207 Population Ecology
Socio Economic Objective 960507 Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Marine Environments
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2014, Springer
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30070322

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