Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001–2011

Wakefield, Melanie A., Coomber, Kerri, Durkin, Sarah J., Scollo, Michelle, Bayly, Megan, Spittal, Matthew J., Simpson, Julie A. and Hill, David 2014, Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001–2011, Bulletin of the World Health Organization, vol. 92, no. 6, pp. 413-422.

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Title Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001–2011
Author(s) Wakefield, Melanie A.
Coomber, Kerri
Durkin, Sarah J.
Scollo, Michelle
Bayly, Megan
Spittal, Matthew J.
Simpson, Julie A.
Hill, David
Journal name Bulletin of the World Health Organization
Volume number 92
Issue number 6
Start page 413
End page 422
Total pages 10
Publisher World Health Organization
Place of publication Geneva, Switzerland
Publication date 2014-03-18
ISSN 1564-0604
Summary Objective: To determine the impact of tobacco control policies and mass media campaigns on smoking prevalence in Australian adults.
Methods: Data for calculating the average monthly prevalence of smoking between January 2001 and June 2011 were obtained via structured interviews of randomly sampled adults aged 18 years or older from Australia’s five largest capital cities (monthly mean number of adults interviewed: 2375). The influence on smoking prevalence was estimated for increased tobacco taxes; strengthened smoke-free laws; increased monthly population exposure to televised tobacco control mass media campaigns and pharmaceutical company advertising for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), using gross ratings points; monthly sales of NRT, bupropion and varenicline; and introduction of graphic health warnings on cigarette packs. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to examine the influence of these interventions on smoking prevalence.
Findings: The mean smoking prevalence for the study period was 19.9% (standard deviation: 2.0%), with a drop from 23.6% (in January 2001) to 17.3% (in June 2011). The best-fitting model showed that stronger smoke-free laws, tobacco price increases and greater exposure to mass media campaigns independently explained 76% of the decrease in smoking prevalence from February 2002 to June 2011.
Conclusion: Increased tobacco taxation, more comprehensive smoke-free laws and increased investment in mass media campaigns played a substantial role in reducing smoking prevalence among Australian adults between 2001 and 2011.
Language eng
Field of Research 170113 Social and Community Psychology
Socio Economic Objective 920499 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) not elsewhere classified
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2014, World Health Organization
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30073540

Document type: Journal Article
Collections: Faculty of Health
School of Psychology
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