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Climatic, vegetation and edaphic influences on the probability of fire across mediterranean woodlands of south-eastern Australia

Gibson, Rebecca K., Bradstock, Ross A., Penman, Trent, Keith, David A. and Driscoll, Don A. 2015, Climatic, vegetation and edaphic influences on the probability of fire across mediterranean woodlands of south-eastern Australia, Journal of biogeography, vol. 42, no. 9, pp. 1750-1760, doi: 10.1111/jbi.12547.

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Title Climatic, vegetation and edaphic influences on the probability of fire across mediterranean woodlands of south-eastern Australia
Author(s) Gibson, Rebecca K.
Bradstock, Ross A.
Penman, Trent
Keith, David A.
Driscoll, Don A.ORCID iD for Driscoll, Don A. orcid.org/0000-0002-1560-5235
Journal name Journal of biogeography
Volume number 42
Issue number 9
Start page 1750
End page 1760
Total pages 11
Publisher Wiley
Place of publication Weinheim, Germany
Publication date 2015-01-01
ISSN 0305-0270
1365-2699
Keyword(s) Australia
Bayesian modelling
fire interval
mallee woodlands
mallee heathlands
mediterranean climate region
productivity gradient
soil fertility
time since fire
Weibull distribution
Summary  Aim: We investigated how the probability of burning is influenced by the time since fire (TSF) and gradients of climate, soil and vegetation in the fire-prone mediterranean-climate mallee woodlands of south-eastern Australia. This provided insight into the processes controlling contemporary fuel dynamics and fire regimes across biogeographical boundaries, and the consequent effects of climate change on potential shifts in boundaries between fuel systems and fire regimes, at a subcontinental scale. Location: South-eastern Australia. Methods: A desktop-based GIS was used to generate random sampling points across the study region to collect data on intersecting fire interval, rainfall, vegetation and soil type. We used a Bayesian framework to examine the effects of combinations of rainfall, vegetation and soil type on the hazard-of-burning and survival parameters of the Weibull distribution. These analyses identify the nature of environmental controls on the length of fire intervals and the age-dependence of the hazard of burning. Results: Higher rainfall was consistently associated with shorter fire intervals. Within a single level of rainfall, however, the interaction between soil and vegetation type influenced the length of fire intervals. Higher-fertility sands were associated with shorter fire intervals in grass-dominated communities, whereas lower-fertility sands were associated with shorter fire intervals in shrub-dominated communities. The hazard of burning remained largely independent of TSF across the region, only markedly increasing with TSF in shrub-dominated communities at high rainfall. Main conclusions: Rainfall had a dominant influence on fire frequency in the mediterranean-climate mallee woodlands of south-eastern Australia. Predicted changes in the spatial distribution and amount of rainfall therefore have the potential to drive changes in fire regimes, although the effects of soil fertility and rainfall on fire regimes do not align on a simple productivity gradient. Reduced soil fertility may favour plant traits that increase the rate of woody litter fuel accumulation and flammability, which may alter the overriding influence of rainfall gradients on fire regimes.
Language eng
DOI 10.1111/jbi.12547
Field of Research 050104 Landscape Ecology
04 Earth Sciences
05 Environmental Sciences
06 Biological Sciences
050104 Landscape Ecology
Socio Economic Objective 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2015, Wiley
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30078603

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