Identifying determinants of demand for construction using an econometric approach

Jiang, Heng and Liu, Chunlu 2015, Identifying determinants of demand for construction using an econometric approach, International journal of strategic property management, vol. 19, no. 4, pp. 346-357, doi: 10.3846/1648715X.2015.1072856.

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Title Identifying determinants of demand for construction using an econometric approach
Author(s) Jiang, Heng
Liu, ChunluORCID iD for Liu, Chunlu
Journal name International journal of strategic property management
Volume number 19
Issue number 4
Start page 346
End page 357
Total pages 12
Publisher Taylor & Francis
Place of publication London, Eng.
Publication date 2015
ISSN 1648-715X
Keyword(s) Social Sciences
Business & Economics
Construction demand
Economic indicators
Vector error correction model
Summary Economic variation and its effects on construction demand have received a great deal of attention in construction economics studies. An understanding of future trends in demand for construction could influence investment strategies for a variety of parties, including construction developers, suppliers, property investors and financial institutions. This paper derives the determinants of demand for construction in Australia using an econometric approach to identify and evaluate economic indicators that affect construction demand. The forecasting contribution of different determinants of economic indicators and their categories to the demand for construction are further estimated. The results of this empirical study suggest that changes in consumer’s expectation, income and production, and demography and labour force are closely correlated with the movement of construction demand; and 14 economic indicators are identified as the determinants for construction demand. It was found that the changes in construction price, national income, size of population, unemployment rate, value or export, household expenditure and interest rates play key roles in explaining future variations in the demand for construction in Australia. Some “popular” macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, established house price and bank loans produced inconclusive results.
Language eng
DOI 10.3846/1648715X.2015.1072856
Field of Research 120201 Building Construction Management and Project Planning
1504 Commercial Services
Socio Economic Objective 870503 Residential Building Management and Services
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2015, Taylor & Francis
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Document type: Journal Article
Collection: School of Architecture and Built Environment
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