Future predictions of body mass index and overweight prevalence in Australia, 2005-2025

Haby, Michelle M., Markwick, Alison, Peeters, Anna, Shaw, Jonathan and Vos, Theo 2012, Future predictions of body mass index and overweight prevalence in Australia, 2005-2025, Health promotion international, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 250-260, doi: 10.1093/heapro/dar036.

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Title Future predictions of body mass index and overweight prevalence in Australia, 2005-2025
Author(s) Haby, Michelle M.
Markwick, Alison
Peeters, AnnaORCID iD for Peeters, Anna orcid.org/0000-0003-4340-9132
Shaw, Jonathan
Vos, Theo
Journal name Health promotion international
Volume number 27
Issue number 2
Start page 250
End page 260
Total pages 11
Publisher Oxford University Press
Place of publication Oxford, Eng.
Publication date 2012-06
ISSN 1460-2245
Keyword(s) Adolescent
Age Factors
Body Mass Index
Body Weights and Measures
Child, Preschool
Cohort Studies
Cross-Sectional Studies
Health Surveys
Sex Factors
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Health Policy & Services
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Health Care Sciences & Services
Summary To predict current and future body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of overweight and obesity in Australian children and adults based on sex, age and year of birth (cohort). These predictions are needed for population health planning and evaluation. Data were drawn from 11 cross-sectional national or state population surveys conducted in Australia between 1969 and 2004. These included representative population samples of children (n= 27,635) and adults (n= 43,447) aged 5 years or older with measured height and weight data. Multiple linear regression analyses of measured log-transformed BMI data were conducted to determine the independent effects of age and year of birth (cohort) on ln(BMI) for males and females, respectively. Regression coefficients for cohort obtained from these analyses were applied to the National Nutrition Survey 1995 data set to predict mean BMI and prevalence of overweight (BMI 25-29.99 kg/m(2)) and obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) in 2005, 2015 and 2025. Based on past trends, BMI is predicted to continue to increase for both males and females and across the age span. This would result in increases in the prevalence of overweight and obesity of between 0.4 and 0.8% per year, such that by 2025 around one-third of 5-19 year olds will be overweight or obese as will 83% of males and 75% of females aged 20 years and over. The increases in prevalence and mean BMI predicted in this study will have significant impacts on disease burden, healthcare costs and need for prevention and treatment programmes.
Language eng
DOI 10.1093/heapro/dar036
Field of Research 111799 Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified
1117 Public Health And Health Services
1302 Curriculum And Pedagogy
Socio Economic Objective 920499 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) not elsewhere classified
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2012, The Author
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30081154

Document type: Journal Article
Collections: Faculty of Health
School of Exercise and Nutrition Sciences
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