Projecting the burden of diabetes in Australia - what is the size of the matter?

Magliano, Dianna J., Peeters, Anna, Vos, Theo, Sicree, Richard, Shaw, Jonathan, Sindall, Colin, Haby, Michelle, Begg, Stephen J. and Zimmet, Paul Z. 2009, Projecting the burden of diabetes in Australia - what is the size of the matter?, Australian and New Zealand journal of public health, vol. 33, no. 6, pp. 540-543, doi: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2009.00450.x.

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Title Projecting the burden of diabetes in Australia - what is the size of the matter?
Author(s) Magliano, Dianna J.
Peeters, AnnaORCID iD for Peeters, Anna
Vos, Theo
Sicree, Richard
Shaw, Jonathan
Sindall, Colin
Haby, Michelle
Begg, Stephen J.
Zimmet, Paul Z.
Journal name Australian and New Zealand journal of public health
Volume number 33
Issue number 6
Start page 540
End page 543
Total pages 4
Publisher Wiley
Place of publication Richmond, Vic.
Publication date 2009-12
ISSN 1753-6405
Keyword(s) Adult
Cost of Illness
Diabetes Mellitus
Middle Aged
Young Adult
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Summary OBJECTIVE: To analyse the implications of using different methods to predict diabetes prevalence for the future. APPROACH: Different methods used to predict diabetes were compared and recommendations are made. CONCLUSION: We recommend that all projections take a conservative approach to diabetes prevalence prediction and present a 'base case' using the most robust, contemporary data available. We also recommend that uncertainty analyses be included in all analyses. IMPLICATIONS: Despite variation in assumptions and methodology used, all the published predictions demonstrate that diabetes is an escalating problem for Australia. We can safely assume that unless trends in diabetes incidence are reversed there will be at least 2 million Australian adults with diabetes by 2025. If obesity and diabetes incidence trends, continue upwards, and mortality continues to decline, up to 3 million people will have diabetes by 2025, with the figure closer to 3.5 million by 2033. The impact of this for Australia has not been measured.
Language eng
DOI 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2009.00450.x
Field of Research 111799 Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified
1117 Public Health And Health Services
1402 Applied Economics
1605 Policy And Administration
Socio Economic Objective 920499 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) not elsewhere classified
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2009, Public Health Association of Australia
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Document type: Journal Article
Collections: Faculty of Health
School of Health and Social Development
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