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Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes

Magliano, D. J., Shaw, J. E., Shortreed, S. M., Nusselder, W. J., Liew, D., Barr, E. L. M., Zimmet, P. Z. and Peeters, A. 2008, Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes, Diabetologia, vol. 51, no. 12, pp. 2179-2186, doi: 10.1007/s00125-008-1150-5.

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Title Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes
Author(s) Magliano, D. J.
Shaw, J. E.
Shortreed, S. M.
Nusselder, W. J.
Liew, D.
Barr, E. L. M.
Zimmet, P. Z.
Peeters, A.ORCID iD for Peeters, A. orcid.org/0000-0003-4340-9132
Journal name Diabetologia
Volume number 51
Issue number 12
Start page 2179
End page 2186
Total pages 8
Publisher Springer
Place of publication Berlin, Germany
Publication date 2008-12
ISSN 1432-0428
Keyword(s) Australia
Cohort Studies
Diabetes Mellitus
Female
Humans
Life Expectancy
Male
Middle Aged
Risk Factors
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Endocrinology & Metabolism
Diabetes
Epidemiology
Incidence
Lifetime risk
Mortality
Population
Prevalence
IMPAIRED GLUCOSE-TOLERANCE
MELLITUS
OBESITY
STYLE
RATES
INDIVIDUALS
AUSDIAB
TRENDS
HOORN
Summary AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: With incidence rates for diabetes increasing rapidly worldwide, estimates of the magnitude of the impact on population health are required. We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes, the number of years lived free of, and the number of years lived with diabetes for the Australian adult population from the year 2000, and to project prevalence of diabetes to the year 2025. METHODS: Multi-state life-tables were constructed to simulate the progress of a cohort of 25-year-old Australians. National mortality rates were combined with incidence rates of diabetes and the RR of mortality in people with diabetes derived from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (a national, population-based study of 11,247 adults aged >or=25 years). RESULTS: If the rates of mortality and diabetes incidence observed over the period 2000-2005 continue, 38.0% (95% uncertainty interval 36.6-38.9) of 25-year-olds would be expected to develop diabetes at some time throughout their life. On average, a 25-year-old Australian will live a further 56 years, 48 of these free of diabetes. On average, a 45-year-old person with diabetes can expect to live 6 years less than a person free of diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise from 7.6% in 2000 to 11.4% by 2025. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: If we maintain current diabetes incidence rates, more than a third of individuals will develop diabetes within their lifetime and in Australia there will an additional 1 million cases of diabetes by the year 2025.
Language eng
DOI 10.1007/s00125-008-1150-5
Field of Research 111799 Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified
1103 Clinical Sciences
1114 Paediatrics And Reproductive Medicine
1117 Public Health And Health Services
Socio Economic Objective 920499 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) not elsewhere classified
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2008, Springer-Verlag
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30081592

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: School of Health and Social Development
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