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Variability and predictability of elite competitive slalom canoe-kayak performance

Nibali, Maria, Hopkins, Will G. and Drinkwater, Eric 2011, Variability and predictability of elite competitive slalom canoe-kayak performance, European journal of sport science, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 125-130, doi: 10.1080/17461391.2010.487121.

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Title Variability and predictability of elite competitive slalom canoe-kayak performance
Author(s) Nibali, Maria
Hopkins, Will G.
Drinkwater, Eric
Journal name European journal of sport science
Volume number 11
Issue number 2
Start page 125
End page 130
Total pages 6
Publisher Taylor & Francis
Place of publication London, Eng.
Publication date 2011
ISSN 1746-1391
1536-7290
Keyword(s) athlete
home advantage
intraclass correlation
penalty
reliability
Summary Little is known about the race performance characteristics of elite-level slalom canoeists or the magnitude of improvement necessary to enhance medal-winning prospects. Final placing in this sport is determined by the aggregate of semi-final and final run times inclusive of penalty times. We therefore used mixed linear modelling to analyse these times for finalists ranked in the top and bottom half in the men's canoe, men's kayak, and women's kayak boat classes at World Cups, World Championships, and Olympic Games from 2000 to 2007. The run-to-run variability for top-ranked athletes at different courses ranged from 0.8% to 3.2% (90% confidence limits ×/÷1.11-1.31), reflecting differences in how challenging these courses were. The race-to-race variability of aggregate run time was 1.2-2.1% (×/÷~1.09); 0.3 of this variability yields the smallest worthwhile enhancement of 0.4-0.6%. The variabilities of bottom-ranked finalists were approximately double those of top-ranked finalists. The home advantage was small (0.3-0.8%), and incurring a penalty had a marginal effect on reducing actual run time (0.2-0.7%). Correlation coefficients for performance predictability within competitions (0.06-0.35), within years (0.12-0.47), and between years (0.12-0.43) were poor. In conclusion, the variability of performance and smallest worthwhile enhancements in slalom canoe-kayaking are larger than those of comparable sports, and race outcomes are largely unpredictable.
Language eng
DOI 10.1080/17461391.2010.487121
Field of Research 1106 Human Movement And Sports Science
0913 Mechanical Engineering
Socio Economic Objective 929999 Health not elsewhere classified
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2011, Taylor & Francis
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30083057

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: School of Exercise and Nutrition Sciences
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