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Estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes using obese-years in a contemporary population of the Framingham Study

Abdullah, Asnawi, Amin, Fauzi Ali, Hanum, Farida, Stoelwinder, Johannes, Tanamas, Stephanie, Wolf, Rory, Wong, Evelyn and Peeters, Anna 2016, Estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes using obese-years in a contemporary population of the Framingham Study, Global health action, vol. 9, pp. 1-8, doi: 10.3402/gha.v9.30421.

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Title Estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes using obese-years in a contemporary population of the Framingham Study
Author(s) Abdullah, Asnawi
Amin, Fauzi Ali
Hanum, Farida
Stoelwinder, Johannes
Tanamas, Stephanie
Wolf, Rory
Wong, Evelyn
Peeters, AnnaORCID iD for Peeters, Anna orcid.org/0000-0003-4340-9132
Journal name Global health action
Volume number 9
Article ID 30421
Start page 1
End page 8
Total pages 8
Publisher Co-Action Publishing
Place of publication Stockholm, Sweden
Publication date 2016
ISSN 1654-9880
Keyword(s) BMI
obese-years
obesity
offspring Framingham
type-2 diabetes
Summary BACKGROUND: We have recently demonstrated that an obese-years construct is a better predictor of the risk of diabetes than the severity of body weight alone. However, these risk estimates were derived from a population cohort study initiated in 1948 that might not apply to the current population.

OBJECTIVE: To validate an obese-years construct in estimating the risk of type-2 diabetes in a more contemporary cohort study.

DESIGN: A total of 5,132 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study, initiated in 1972, were followed up for 45 years. Body mass index (BMI) above 29 kg/m(2) was multiplied by the number of years lived with obesity at that BMI to define the number of obese-years. Time-dependent Cox regression was used to explore the association.

RESULTS: The risk of type-2 diabetes increased significantly with increase in obese-years. Adjusted hazard ratios increased by 6% (95% CI: 5-7%) per additional 10 points of obese-years. This ratio was observed to be similar in both men and women, but was 4% higher in current smokers than in never/ex-smokers. The Akaike Information Criterion confirmed that the Cox regression model with the obese-years construct was a stronger predictor of the risk of diabetes than a model including either BMI or the duration of obesity alone.

CONCLUSIONS: In a contemporary cohort population, it was confirmed that the obese-years construct is strongly associated with an increased risk of type-2 diabetes. This suggests that both severity and the duration of obesity should be considered in future estimations of the burden of disease associated with obesity.
Language eng
DOI 10.3402/gha.v9.30421
Field of Research 110306 Endocrinology
Socio Economic Objective 920104 Diabetes
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2016, The Authors
Free to Read? Yes
Use Rights Creative Commons Attribution licence
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30085198

Document type: Journal Article
Collections: School of Health and Social Development
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Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.