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Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Osborne, Richard, Nolte, Sandra, Lim, Stephen, Allen, Kate, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Dandona, Lalit, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., Fullman, Nancy, Gething, Peter W., Goldberg, Ellen M., Hay, Simon I., Holmberg, Mollie, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kutz, Michael J., Larson, Heidi J., Liang, Xiaofeng, Lopez, Alan D., Lozano, Rafael, McNellan, Claire R. and GBD 2015 SDG Collaborators 2016, Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, Lancet, vol. 388, no. 10053, pp. 1813-1850, doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31467-2.

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Title Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Author(s) Osborne, RichardORCID iD for Osborne, Richard orcid.org/0000-0002-9081-2699
Nolte, Sandra
Lim, Stephen
Allen, Kate
Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.
Dandona, Lalit
Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.
Fullman, Nancy
Gething, Peter W.
Goldberg, Ellen M.
Hay, Simon I.
Holmberg, Mollie
Kinfu, Yohannes
Kutz, Michael J.
Larson, Heidi J.
Liang, Xiaofeng
Lopez, Alan D.
Lozano, Rafael
McNellan, Claire R.
GBD 2015 SDG Collaborators
Journal name Lancet
Volume number 388
Issue number 10053
Start page 1813
End page 1850
Total pages 38
Publisher The Lancet
Place of publication London, Eng.
Publication date 2016-09-21
ISSN 1474-547X
Keyword(s) GBD 2015 SDG Collaborators
Summary Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015(GBD 2015).

Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 healthrelatedSDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worstobserved value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDGindicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals(MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as thegeometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relationsbetween the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educationalattainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59∙3 (95% uncertainty interval 56∙8–61∙8) and variedwidely by country, ranging from 85∙5 (84∙2–86∙5) in Iceland to 20∙4 (15∙4–24∙9) in Central African Republic. SDI wasa good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r²=0∙88) and the MDG index (r²=0∙92), whereas the non-MDG indexhad a weaker relation with SDI (r²=0∙79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a medianof 7∙9 (IQR 5∙0–10∙4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10∙0 [6∙7–13∙1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5∙5 [2∙1–8∙9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as metneed with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal healthcoverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosisincidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-relatedSDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of healthimprovement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be suffi cient. Although considerableprogress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in manycases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-relatedindicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to eff ectively address the expanded scope ofthe health-related SDGs.
Language eng
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31467-2
Field of Research 111799 Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified
Socio Economic Objective 970111 Expanding Knowledge in the Medical and Health Sciences
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2016, The Authors
Free to Read? Yes
Use Rights Creative Commons Attribution licence
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30087919

Document type: Journal Article
Collections: School of Health and Social Development
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Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.