Perceptions of fuzzy set theory in construction risk analysis

Tokede, Olubukola and Wamuziri, Sam 2012, Perceptions of fuzzy set theory in construction risk analysis, in ARCOM 2012 : Proceedings of the 28th Annual Conference of the Association of Researchers in Construction Management, Association of Researchers in Construction Management, Reading, Eng., pp. 1197-1207.

Attached Files
Name Description MIMEType Size Downloads

Title Perceptions of fuzzy set theory in construction risk analysis
Author(s) Tokede, OlubukolaORCID iD for Tokede, Olubukola orcid.org/0000-0002-5116-3390
Wamuziri, Sam
Conference name Association of Researchers in Construction Management. Annual Conference (28th : 2012 : Edinburgh, Scottland)
Conference location Edinburgh, Scottland
Conference dates 2012/09/03 - 2012/09/05
Title of proceedings ARCOM 2012 : Proceedings of the 28th Annual Conference of the Association of Researchers in Construction Management
Editor(s) Smith, Simon
Publication date 2012
Conference series Association of Researchers in Construction Management Annual Conference
Start page 1197
End page 1207
Total pages 11
Publisher Association of Researchers in Construction Management
Place of publication Reading, Eng.
Keyword(s) decision analysis
fuzzy set theory
risk analysis
risk modelling
Summary Over the last three decades, organizations have increasingly been taking account of risk and uncertainty in their decision-making processes. The traditional methodology for risk management involves risk identification, risk analysis and management response to risk. Common risk analysis techniques in the construction industry include sensitivity analysis, probability analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, beta analysis etc. In this regard, Monte-Carlo simulation has been a touchstone of simulation efficiency across contemporary literature on risk analysis. However, a number of concerns have been raised about the intractability and construct validity of Monte Carlo representations for construction risks. The use of Monte Carlo simulation is based on the premise that the uncertain or risk event can be defined by a known probability distribution function. Unfortunately, this is not the case as far as risk is concerned in construction projects. It is in situations such as these where precise probability density functions cannot be ascribed to uncertain events that fuzzy set analysis becomes helpful. This research investigates the perceptions of fuzzy set theory and its influence on the practice of construction risk analysis. This work is part of a larger study that aims to investigate the specific insights that fuzzy set theory could bring into the construction risk analysis discipline. Purposive sampling was employed in selection of participants for the investigation. Structured interviews were conducted with highly experienced construction professionals in the United Kingdom. The results of these studies reveal that fuzzy set theory can enhance reasoning in analysing construction risks. However, fuzzy set theory as a stand-alone mathematical tool is not sufficient to complete the risk analysis process. Furthermore, the study indicates the vulnerability, volatility and computational intensiveness of fuzzy set theory may discourage construction practitioners from embracing the principles and applications of fuzzy set theory.
ISBN 9780955239069
Language eng
HERDC Research category E1.1 Full written paper - refereed
ERA Research output type E Conference publication
Copyright notice ©2012, Association of Researchers in Construction Management
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30088135

Document type: Conference Paper
Collection: School of Architecture and Built Environment
Connect to link resolver
 
Unless expressly stated otherwise, the copyright for items in DRO is owned by the author, with all rights reserved.

Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 0 times in TR Web of Science
Scopus Citation Count Cited 3 times in Scopus
Google Scholar Search Google Scholar
Access Statistics: 67 Abstract Views, 7 File Downloads  -  Detailed Statistics
Created: Thu, 31 Aug 2017, 18:12:07 EST

Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.