Geographic variation in seasonality and its influence on the dynamics of an infectious disease

Lisovski, Simeon, Hoye, Bethany and Klaassen, Marcel 2017, Geographic variation in seasonality and its influence on the dynamics of an infectious disease, Oikos, vol. 126, no. 7, pp. 931-936, doi: 10.1111/oik.03796.

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Title Geographic variation in seasonality and its influence on the dynamics of an infectious disease
Author(s) Lisovski, Simeon
Hoye, BethanyORCID iD for Hoye, Bethany
Klaassen, MarcelORCID iD for Klaassen, Marcel
Journal name Oikos
Volume number 126
Issue number 7
Start page 931
End page 936
Total pages 6
Publisher Wiley
Place of publication London, Eng.
Publication date 2017-07
ISSN 0030-1299
Summary Seasonal changes in environmental drivers - such as temperature, rainfall, and resource availability - have the potential to shape infection dynamics through their reverberating effects on biological processes including host abundance and susceptibility to infection. However, seasonality varies geographically. We therefore expect marked differences in infection dynamics between regions with different seasonal patterns. By pairing extensive Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) surveillance data - 65 358 individual bird samples from 12 species of dabbling ducks sampled at 174 locations across North America - with quantification of seasonality using remote sensed data indicative for primary productivity (normalised differenced vegetation index, NDVI), we provide evidence that seasonal dynamics influence infection dynamics across a continent. More pronounced epidemics were seen to occur in regions experiencing a higher degree of seasonality, and epidemics of lower amplitude and longer duration occurred in regions with a more protracted and lower seasonal amplitude. These results demonstrate the potential importance of geographic variation in seasonality for explaining geographic variation in the dynamics of infectious diseases in wildlife.
Language eng
DOI 10.1111/oik.03796
Field of Research 060302 Biogeography and Phylogeography
060299 Ecology not elsewhere classified
0602 Ecology
Socio Economic Objective 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2016, The Authors
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