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The predictive validity of bipolar at-risk (prodromal) criteria in help-seeking adolescents and young adults: a prospective study

Bechdolf, Andreas, Rateesh, Aswin, Cotton, Sue M., Nelson, Barnaby, Chanen, Andrew M., Betts, Jennifer, Bingmann, Tiffany, Yung, Alison R., Berk, Michael and McGorry, Patrick D. 2014, The predictive validity of bipolar at-risk (prodromal) criteria in help-seeking adolescents and young adults: a prospective study, Bipolar Disorders: an international journal of psychiatry and neurosciences, vol. 16, no. 5, Special Issue: Guest Editors – Roger S. McIntyre and Christoph U. Correll, pp. 493-504, doi: 10.1111/bdi.12205.

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Title The predictive validity of bipolar at-risk (prodromal) criteria in help-seeking adolescents and young adults: a prospective study
Author(s) Bechdolf, Andreas
Rateesh, Aswin
Cotton, Sue M.
Nelson, Barnaby
Chanen, Andrew M.
Betts, Jennifer
Bingmann, Tiffany
Yung, Alison R.
Berk, Michael
McGorry, Patrick D.
Journal name Bipolar Disorders: an international journal of psychiatry and neurosciences
Volume number 16
Issue number 5
Season Special Issue: Guest Editors – Roger S. McIntyre and Christoph U. Correll
Start page 493
End page 504
Total pages 12
Publisher John Wiley & Sons
Place of publication London, Eng.
Publication date 2014-08
Keyword(s) bipolar disorder
cyclothymia
depression
follow-up
high-risk
mania
prodrome
prospective study
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Psychiatry
Summary ObjectivesThere are no established tools to identify individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorder. We developed a set of ultra-high-risk criteria for bipolar disorder [bipolar at-risk (BAR)]. The primary aim of the present study was to determine the predictive validity of the BAR criteria.MethodsThis was a 12-month prospective study that was conducted at Orygen Youth Health Clinical Program, a public mental health program for young people aged 15–24 years in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. At intake, BAR screen-positive individuals and a matched group of individuals who did not meet BAR criteria were observed over a period of 12 months. The BAR criteria include general criteria such as being in the peak age range for the onset of the disorder, as well as sub-threshold mania, depression plus cyclothymic features, and depression plus genetic risk. Conversion to first-episode mania/hypomania was defined by the presence of DSM-IV manic symptoms for more than four days, in line with the DSM-IV definition of hypomania/mania.ResultsA total of 559 help-seeking patients were screened. Of the eligible participants, 59 (10.6%) met BAR criteria. Thirty-five participants were included in the BAR group and 35 matched participants were selected to be in the control group. During the follow-up, five BAR patients out of 35 (14.3%) converted to first-episode hypomania/mania as opposed to none in the non-BAR group [χ2(1) = 5.38, p = 0.020]. Four out of these five converters had a DSM-IV diagnosis of bipolar I or bipolar II disorder.ConclusionsThese findings support the possibility of identification of persons prior to the onset of mania/hypomania. The proposed criteria need further evaluation in larger, prospective studies with longer follow-up periods.
Language eng
DOI 10.1111/bdi.12205
Field of Research 110319 Psychiatry (incl Psychotherapy)
1103 Clinical Sciences
1701 Psychology
Socio Economic Objective 920410 Mental Health
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2014, John Wiley & Sons
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30091232

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: School of Medicine
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