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Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms

Atkinson, Jo-An, Knowles, Dylan, Wiggers, John, Livingston, Michael, Room, Robin, Prodan, Ante, McDonnell, Geoff, O'Donnell, Eloise, Jones, Sandra, Haber, Paul S., Muscatello, David, Ezard, Nadine, Phung, Nghi, Freebairn, Louise, Indig, Devon, Rychetnik, Lucie, Ananthapavan, Jaithri, Wutzke, Sonia and Alcohol Modelling Consortium 2018, Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms, International Journal of Public Health, vol. 63, no. 4, pp. 537-546, doi: 10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y.

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Title Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms
Author(s) Atkinson, Jo-An
Knowles, Dylan
Wiggers, John
Livingston, Michael
Room, Robin
Prodan, Ante
McDonnell, Geoff
O'Donnell, Eloise
Jones, Sandra
Haber, Paul S.
Muscatello, David
Ezard, Nadine
Phung, Nghi
Freebairn, Louise
Indig, Devon
Rychetnik, Lucie
Ananthapavan, JaithriORCID iD for Ananthapavan, Jaithri orcid.org/0000-0002-5957-6931
Wutzke, Sonia
Alcohol Modelling Consortium
Journal name International Journal of Public Health
Volume number 63
Issue number 4
Start page 537
End page 546
Total pages 10
Publisher Birkhaeuser Science
Place of publication Basel, Switzerland
Publication date 2018-05-19
ISSN 1661-8556
1661-8564
Keyword(s) agent-based modelling
alcohol-related harm
prevention policy
evidence synthesis
alcohol modelling consortium
Summary Objectives
Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world.

Methods

A consortium of Australia’s leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms. As a case study, four policy scenarios were examined.

Results
A 19.5 ± 2.5% reduction in acute alcohol-related harms was estimated with the implementation of a 3 a.m. licensed venue closing time plus 1 a.m. lockout; and a 9 ± 2.6% reduction in incidence was estimated with expansion of treatment services to reach 20% of heavy drinkers. Combining the two scenarios produced a 33.3 ± 2.7% reduction in the incidence of acute alcohol-related harms, suggesting a synergistic effect.

Conclusions
This study demonstrates the feasibility of participatory development of a contextually relevant computer simulation model of alcohol-related harms and highlights the value of the approach in identifying potential policy responses that best leverage limited resources.
Language eng
DOI 10.1007/s00038-017-1041-y
Field of Research 1117 Public Health And Health Services
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2017, The Authors
Free to Read? Yes
Use Rights Creative Commons Attribution licence
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30103774

Document type: Journal Article
Collections: Faculty of Health
Population Health
Open Access Collection
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Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.