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Projected changes in wet-bulb globe temperature under alternative climate scenarios

Newth, David and Gunasekera, Don 2018, Projected changes in wet-bulb globe temperature under alternative climate scenarios, Atmosphere, vol. 9, no. 5, doi: 10.3390/atmos9050187.

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Title Projected changes in wet-bulb globe temperature under alternative climate scenarios
Author(s) Newth, David
Gunasekera, DonORCID iD for Gunasekera, Don orcid.org/0000-0003-4515-492X
Journal name Atmosphere
Volume number 9
Issue number 5
Total pages 12
Publisher MDPI
Place of publication Basel, Switzerland
Publication date 2018-05-15
Keyword(s) Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
wet-bulb globe temperature
representative concentration pathways
heat stress
HEAT-STRESS
STABILIZATION
PRODUCTIVITY
GENERATION
PATHWAY
HEALTH
ISSUE
CMIP5
Summary The increased levels of Greenhouse Gasses (GHGs) in the atmosphere will result in increased near-surface air temperature and absolute humidity. These two factors increasingly pose a risk of heat stress to humans. The Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is a widely used and validated index for assessing the environmental heat stress. Using the output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations of the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we calculated the global and regional changes in WBGT. Globally, the WBGT is projected to increase by 0.6–1.7 C for RCP 2.6 and 2.37–4.4 C for RCP 8.5. At the regional scale, our analysis suggests a disproportionate increase in the WBGT over northern India, China, northern Australia, Africa, Central America and Southeast Asia. An increase in WBGT has consequences not only on human health but also on social and economic factors. These consequences may be exacerbated in developing economies, which are less able to adapt to the changing environmental conditions.
Language eng
DOI 10.3390/atmos9050187
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Grant ID DP130100418
Copyright notice ©2018, The Authors
Free to Read? Yes
Use Rights Creative Commons Attribution licence
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30108417

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Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.