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Quantifying extinction risk and forecasting the number of impending Australian bird and mammal extinctions

Geyle, Hayley M., Woinarski, John C. Z., Baker, G. Barry, Dickman, Chris R., Dutson, Guy, Fisher, Diana O., Ford, Hugh, Holdsworth, Mark, Jones, Menna E., Kutt, Alex, Legge, Sarah, Leiper, Ian, Lyon, Richard, Murphy, Brett P., Menkhorst, Peter, Reside, April E., Ritchie, Euan, Roberts, Finley E., Tingley, Reid and Garnett, Stephen T. 2018, Quantifying extinction risk and forecasting the number of impending Australian bird and mammal extinctions, Pacific Conservation Biology, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 157-167, doi: 10.1071/PC18006.

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Title Quantifying extinction risk and forecasting the number of impending Australian bird and mammal extinctions
Author(s) Geyle, Hayley M.
Woinarski, John C. Z.
Baker, G. Barry
Dickman, Chris R.
Dutson, Guy
Fisher, Diana O.
Ford, Hugh
Holdsworth, Mark
Jones, Menna E.
Kutt, Alex
Legge, Sarah
Leiper, Ian
Lyon, Richard
Murphy, Brett P.
Menkhorst, Peter
Reside, April E.
Ritchie, EuanORCID iD for Ritchie, Euan orcid.org/0000-0003-4410-8868
Roberts, Finley E.
Tingley, Reid
Garnett, Stephen T.
Journal name Pacific Conservation Biology
Volume number 24
Issue number 2
Start page 157
End page 167
Total pages 11
Publisher C S I R O Publishing
Place of publication Clayton, Vic.
Publication date 2018-04-20
ISSN 1038-2097
Keyword(s) anthropocene mass extinction crisis
biodiversity conservation
threatened species
Summary A critical step towards reducing the incidence of extinction is to identify and rank the species at highest risk, while implementing protective measures to reduce the risk of extinction to such species. Existing global processes provide a graded categorisation of extinction risk. Here we seek to extend and complement those processes to focus more narrowly on the likelihood of extinction of the most imperilled Australian birds and mammals. We considered an extension of existing IUCN and NatureServe criteria, and used expert elicitation to rank the extinction risk to the most imperilled species, assuming current management. On the basis of these assessments, and using two additional approaches, we estimated the number of extinctions likely to occur in the next 20 years. The estimates of extinction risk derived from our tighter IUCN categorisations, NatureServe assessments and expert elicitation were poorly correlated, with little agreement among methods for which species were most in danger – highlighting the importance of integrating multiple approaches when considering extinction risk. Mapped distributions of the 20 most imperilled birds reveal that most are endemic to islands or occur in southern Australia. The 20 most imperilled mammals occur mostly in northern and central Australia. While there were some differences in the forecasted number of extinctions in the next 20 years among methods, all three approaches predict further species loss. Overall, we estimate that another seven Australian mammals and 10 Australian birds will be extinct by 2038 unless management improves.
Language eng
DOI 10.1071/PC18006
Field of Research 0602 Ecology
05 Environmental Sciences
06 Biology Sciences
07 Agricultural And Veterinary Sciences
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Copyright notice ©2018, CSIRO
Free to Read? Yes
Use Rights Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No-Derivatives licence
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30109156

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Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.