Effectiveness of regulatory policy in curbing deforestation in a biodiversity hotspot

Simmons, B. Alexander, Wilson, Kerrie A., Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo, Bryan, Brett A., Holland, Oakes and Law, Elizabeth A. 2018, Effectiveness of regulatory policy in curbing deforestation in a biodiversity hotspot, Environmental research letters, vol. 13, no. 12, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aae7f9.

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Title Effectiveness of regulatory policy in curbing deforestation in a biodiversity hotspot
Author(s) Simmons, B. Alexander
Wilson, Kerrie A.
Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo
Bryan, Brett A.ORCID iD for Bryan, Brett A. orcid.org/0000-0003-4834-5641
Holland, Oakes
Law, Elizabeth A.
Journal name Environmental research letters
Volume number 13
Issue number 12
Total pages 10
Publisher IOP Publishing
Place of publication Bristol, Eng.
Publication date 2018-11-23
ISSN 1748-9318
Keyword(s) Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Physical Sciences
Environmental Sciences
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
causal inference
covariate matching
land clearing
policy impact
impact evaluation
social norms
Summary © 2018 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Recent rates of deforestation on private lands in Australia rival deforestation hotspots around the world, despite conservation policies in place to avert deforestation. This study uses causal impact estimation techniques to determine if a controversial conservation policy - the Vegetation Management Act (VMA) - has successfully reduced deforestation of remnant trees in the Brigalow Belt South, a 21.6 Mha biodiversity hotspot in Queensland. We use covariate matching to determine the regulatory effect of the policy on deforestation rates over time, compared to two counterfactual scenarios representing upper and lower estimates of policy impact. The VMA significantly reduced the rate of remnant deforestation in the highest impact scenario, saving 17, 729 ±1733 ha during 2000-2016. In the lowest scenario, 'panic clearing' before and after enactment of the VMA minimized the amount of remnant forests saved and may have marginally increased deforestation relative to the counterfactual (-404 ±617 ha). At peak effectiveness, the VMA successfully counteracted the amount of remnant deforestation during 2010-2012, but this only represents 4.78% of the 371, 252 ha of remnant forests cleared in the bioregion since enactment in 1999. Thus, while deforestation rates in the region have substantially reduced since the policy was enacted, our results of positive yet limited direct regulatory impact suggests the policy's effectiveness is strongly confounded by other deforestation drivers, like changing socio-economic or climate conditions, as well as new social signals provoked by the policy. The mechanisms through which the policy influences deforestation behavior must be further investigated to ensure real, desirable change is achieved.
Language eng
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aae7f9
Field of Research MD Multidisciplinary
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
ERA Research output type C Journal article
Grant ID CE11001000104
Copyright notice ©2018, The Author(s)
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30117152

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