Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014

Evans, Robin J and Mammadov, Musa 2015, Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014, F1000research, vol. 3, pp. 1-12, doi: 10.12688/f1000research.5941.2.

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Title Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014
Author(s) Evans, Robin J
Mammadov, Musa
Journal name F1000research
Volume number 3
Article ID 319
Start page 1
End page 12
Total pages 12
Publisher F1000Research
Place of publication London, Eng.
Publication date 2015
ISSN 2046-1402
Keyword(s) dynamics
infectious period
simple linear model
Summary This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a simple linear model. It contains one major parameter - the average infectious period that defines the dynamics of epidemics. Numerical implementations are carried out on data collected from three countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as the total data collected worldwide. Predictions are provided by considering different scenarios involving the average times of infectiousness for the next few months and the end of the current epidemic is estimated according to each scenario.
Language eng
DOI 10.12688/f1000research.5941.2
HERDC Research category C1.1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2015, Evans RJ and Mammadov M
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30119688

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