A comparison of the modelled impacts on CVD mortality if attainment of public health recommendations was achieved in metropolitan and rural Australia

Alston, Laura, Jacobs, Jane, Allender, Steven and Nichols, Melanie 2019, A comparison of the modelled impacts on CVD mortality if attainment of public health recommendations was achieved in metropolitan and rural Australia, Public health nutrition, pp. 1-9, doi: 10.1017/S136898001900199X.

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Title A comparison of the modelled impacts on CVD mortality if attainment of public health recommendations was achieved in metropolitan and rural Australia
Author(s) Alston, Laura
Jacobs, Jane
Allender, StevenORCID iD for Allender, Steven orcid.org/0000-0002-4842-3294
Nichols, MelanieORCID iD for Nichols, Melanie orcid.org/0000-0002-7834-5899
Journal name Public health nutrition
Start page 1
End page 9
Total pages 9
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Place of publication Cambridge, Eng.
Publication date 2019
ISSN 1368-9800
1475-2727
Keyword(s) CVD
Dietary intake
IHD
Inequalities
Prevention
Risk factors
Rural
Summary Objective:To (i) determine the proportion of deaths from CVD that could be avoided in both rural and metropolitan Australia if public health recommendations were met; (ii) assess the impact on the rural CVD mortality; and (iii) determine if policy priorities should be different by rurality for CVD prevention.Design:A macro-simulation modelling study of population data. Population, risk factor and CVD death data stratified by rurality were analysed using the Preventable Risk Integrated Model. The baseline scenario was the current risk factor levels (including physical activity, smoking, diet and alcohol). The counterfactual scenario was the population levels of these risk factors expected if public health recommendations were met.Setting:Metropolitan and rural Australia.Participants:Rural- and metropolitan-dwelling adults in Australia.Results:Both populations would experience similar relative declines in the proportion of deaths from CVD. A total of 14 892 deaths from CVD would be avoided annually; with similar declines in the proportions of deaths by rurality. Critically, the order of policy priorities for public health recommendation attainment would differ by rurality CVD prevention, with addressing fat intakes being a higher priority in rural areas.Conclusions:Achieving public health recommendations in Australia would result in large declines in CVD mortality. Despite declines in overall CVD mortality under this scenario, an inequality in CVD burden would persist for rural populations. The order of risk factor priorities would differ by rurality.
Notes First View Article
Language eng
DOI 10.1017/S136898001900199X
Indigenous content off
Field of Research 11 Medical and Health Sciences
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2019, The Authors
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30129090

Document type: Journal Article
Collections: Faculty of Health
Population Health
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