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Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four continents

Di Angelantonio, E., Bhupathiraju, S. N., Wormser, D., Gao, P., Kaptoge, S., de Gonzalez, A. B., Cairns, B. J., Huxley, R., Jackson, C. L., Joshy, G., Lewington, S., Manson, J. A. E., Murphy, N., Patel, A. V., Samet, J. M., Woodward, M., Zheng, W., Zhou, M., Bansal, N., Barricarte, A., Carter, B., Cerhan, J. R., Collins, R., Smith, G. D., Fang, X., Franco, O. H., Green, J., Halsey, J., Hildebrand, J. S., Ji Jung, K., Korda, R. J., McLerran, D. F., Moore, S. C., O'Keeffe, L. M., Paige, E., Ramond, A., Reeves, G. K., Rolland, B., Sacerdote, C., Sattar, N., Anopoulou, E. S., Stevens, J., Thun, M., Ueshima, H., Yang, L., Duk Yun, Y., Willeit, P., Banks, E., Beral, V., Chen, Z., Gapstur, S. M., Gunter, M. J., Hartge, P., Jee, S. H., Lam, T. H., Peto, R., Potter, J. D., Willett, W. C., Thompson, S. G., Danesh, J. and Hu, F. B. 2016, Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four continents, The lancet, vol. 388, no. 10046, pp. 776-786, doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30175-1.

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Title Body-mass index and all-cause mortality: individual-participant-data meta-analysis of 239 prospective studies in four continents
Author(s) Di Angelantonio, E.
Bhupathiraju, S. N.
Wormser, D.
Gao, P.
Kaptoge, S.
de Gonzalez, A. B.
Cairns, B. J.
Huxley, R.ORCID iD for Huxley, R. orcid.org/0000-0002-2705-6616
Jackson, C. L.
Joshy, G.
Lewington, S.
Manson, J. A. E.
Murphy, N.
Patel, A. V.
Samet, J. M.
Woodward, M.
Zheng, W.
Zhou, M.
Bansal, N.
Barricarte, A.
Carter, B.
Cerhan, J. R.
Collins, R.
Smith, G. D.
Fang, X.
Franco, O. H.
Green, J.
Halsey, J.
Hildebrand, J. S.
Ji Jung, K.
Korda, R. J.
McLerran, D. F.
Moore, S. C.
O'Keeffe, L. M.
Paige, E.
Ramond, A.
Reeves, G. K.
Rolland, B.
Sacerdote, C.
Sattar, N.
Anopoulou, E. S.
Stevens, J.
Thun, M.
Ueshima, H.
Yang, L.
Duk Yun, Y.
Willeit, P.
Banks, E.
Beral, V.
Chen, Z.
Gapstur, S. M.
Gunter, M. J.
Hartge, P.
Jee, S. H.
Lam, T. H.
Peto, R.
Potter, J. D.
Willett, W. C.
Thompson, S. G.
Danesh, J.
Hu, F. B.
Journal name The lancet
Volume number 388
Issue number 10046
Start page 776
End page 786
Total pages 11
Publisher The Lancet Publishing Group
Place of publication London, Eng.
Publication date 2016-07-13
ISSN 0140-6736
1474-547X
Keyword(s) Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Medicine, General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
CARDIOVASCULAR-DISEASE
RISK-FACTORS
OBESITY
ASSOCIATION
OVERWEIGHT
ADIPOSITY
METHODOLOGY
POPULATION
DEATH
Summary © 2016 The Author(s). This is an Open Access article under the CC-BY license Background Overweight and obesity are increasing worldwide. To help assess their relevance to mortality in different populations we conducted individual-participant data meta-analyses of prospective studies of body-mass index (BMI), limiting confounding and reverse causality by restricting analyses to never-smokers and excluding pre-existing disease and the first 5 years of follow-up. Methods Of 10 625 411 participants in Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, and North America from 239 prospective studies (median follow-up 13·7 years, IQR 11·4–14·7), 3 951 455 people in 189 studies were never-smokers without chronic diseases at recruitment who survived 5 years, of whom 385 879 died. The primary analyses are of these deaths, and study, age, and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), relative to BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m 2 . Findings All-cause mortality was minimal at 20·0–25·0 kg/m 2 (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·98–1·02 for BMI 20·0–<22·5 kg/m 2 ; 1·00, 0·99–1·01 for BMI 22·5–<25·0 kg/m 2 ), and increased significantly both just below this range (1·13, 1·09–1·17 for BMI 18·5–<20·0 kg/m 2 ; 1·51, 1·43–1·59 for BMI 15·0–<18·5) and throughout the overweight range (1·07, 1·07–1·08 for BMI 25·0–<27·5 kg/m 2 ; 1·20, 1·18–1·22 for BMI 27·5–<30·0 kg/m 2 ). The HR for obesity grade 1 (BMI 30·0–<35·0 kg/m 2 ) was 1·45, 95% CI 1·41–1·48; the HR for obesity grade 2 (35·0–<40·0 kg/m 2 ) was 1·94, 1·87–2·01; and the HR for obesity grade 3 (40·0–<60·0 kg/m 2 ) was 2·76, 2·60–2·92. For BMI over 25·0 kg/m 2 , mortality increased approximately log-linearly with BMI; the HR per 5 kg/m 2 units higher BMI was 1·39 (1·34–1·43) in Europe, 1·29 (1·26–1·32) in North America, 1·39 (1·34–1·44) in east Asia, and 1·31 (1·27–1·35) in Australia and New Zealand. This HR per 5 kg/m 2 units higher BMI (for BMI over 25 kg/m 2 ) was greater in younger than older people (1·52, 95% CI 1·47–1·56, for BMI measured at 35–49 years vs 1·21, 1·17–1·25, for BMI measured at 70–89 years; p heterogeneity <0·0001), greater in men than women (1·51, 1·46–1·56, vs 1·30, 1·26–1·33; p heterogeneity <0·0001), but similar in studies with self-reported and measured BMI. Interpretation The associations of both overweight and obesity with higher all-cause mortality were broadly consistent in four continents. This finding supports strategies to combat the entire spectrum of excess adiposity in many populations. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health.
Language eng
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30175-1
Indigenous content off
Field of Research 11 Medical and Health Sciences
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Free to Read? Yes
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30131904

Document type: Journal Article
Collections: Faculty of Health
PVC's Office - Health
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