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Applications of the epidemiological modelling outputs for targeted mental health planning in conflict-affected populations: the Syria case-study

Charlson, FJ, Lee, Yong Yi, Diminic, S and Whiteford, H 2016, Applications of the epidemiological modelling outputs for targeted mental health planning in conflict-affected populations: the Syria case-study, Global mental health, vol. 3, pp. 1-13, doi: 10.1017/gmh.2016.4.

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Title Applications of the epidemiological modelling outputs for targeted mental health planning in conflict-affected populations: the Syria case-study
Author(s) Charlson, FJ
Lee, Yong Yi
Diminic, S
Whiteford, H
Journal name Global mental health
Volume number 3
Article ID e8
Start page 1
End page 13
Total pages 13
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Place of publication Cambridge, Eng.
Publication date 2016
ISSN 2054-4251
2054-4251
Keyword(s) Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Psychiatry
Conflict
depression
global mental health
policy & systems
post-traumatic stress disorder
service planning
Summary Background Epidemiological models are frequently utilised to ascertain disease prevalence in a population; however, these estimates can have wider practical applications for informing targeted scale-up and optimisation of mental health services. We explore potential applications for a conflict-affected population, Syria. Methods We use prevalence estimates of major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in conflict-affected populations as inputs for subsequent estimations. We use Global Burden of Disease (GBD) methodology to estimate years lived with a disability (YLDs) for depression and PTSD in Syrian populations. Human resource (HR) requirements to scale-up recommended packages of care for PTSD and depression in Syria over a 15-year period were modelled using the World Health Organisation mhGAP costing tool. Associated avertable burden was estimated using health benefit analyses. Results The total number of cases of PTSD in Syria was estimated at approximately 2.2 million, and approximately 1.1 million for depression. An age-standardised major depression rate of 13.4 (95% UI 9.8–17.5) YLDs per 1000 Syrian population is estimated compared with the GBD 2010 global age-standardised YLD rate of 9.2 (95% UI 7.0–11.8). HR requirements to support a linear scale-up of services in Syria using the mhGAP costing tool demonstrates a steady increase from 0.3 FTE in at baseline to 7.6 FTE per 100 000 population after scale-up. Linear scale-up over 15 years could see 7–9% of disease burden being averted. Conclusion Epidemiological estimates of mental disorders are key inputs into determining disease burden and guiding optimal mental health service delivery and can be used in target populations such as conflict-affected populations.
Language eng
DOI 10.1017/gmh.2016.4
Indigenous content off
Field of Research 1103 Clinical Sciences
1117 Public Health and Health Services
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Free to Read? Yes
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30131919

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Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.