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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015

Reitsma, MB, Fullman, N, Ng, M, Salama, JS, Abajobir, A, Abate, KH, Abbafati, C, Abera, SF, Abraham, B, Abyu, GY, Adebiyi, AO, Al-Aly, Z, Aleman, AV, Ali, R, Alkerwi, AA, Allebeck, P, Al-Raddadi, RM, Amare, AT, Amberbir, A, Ammar, W, Amrock, SM, Antonio, CAT, Asayesh, H, Atnafu, NT, Azzopardi, P, Banerjee, A, Barac, A, Barrientos-Gutierrez, T, Basto-Abreu, AC, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Bell, B, Bello, AK, Bensenor, IM, Beyene, AS, Bhala, N, Biryukov, S, Bolt, K, Brenner, H, Butt, Z, Cavalleri, F, Cercy, K, Chen, H, Christopher, DJ, Ciobanu, LG, Colistro, V, Colomar, M, Cornaby, L, Dai, X, Damtew, SA, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dansereau, E, Davletov, K, Dayama, A, Degfie, TT, Deribew, A, Dharmaratne, SD, DImtsu, BD, Doyle, KE, Endries, AY, Ermakov, SP, Estep, K, Faraon, EJA, Farzadfar, F, Feigin, VL, Feigl, AB, Fischer, F, Friedman, J, Ghiwot, TT, Gall, SL, Gao, W, Gillum, RF, Gold, AL, Gopalani, SV, Gotay, CC, Gupta, R, Gupta, R, Gupta, V, Hamadeh, RR, Hankey, G, Harb, HL, Hay, SI, Horino, M, Horita, N, Hosgood, HD, Husseini, A, Ileanu, BV, Islami, F, Jiang, G, Jiang, Y, Jonas, JB, Kabir, Z, Kamal, R, Kasaeian, A, Kesavachandran, CN, Khader, YS, Khalil, I, Khang, YH, Khera, S and Mekonnen, A 2017, Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015, The Lancet, vol. 389, no. 10082, pp. 1885-1906, doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X.

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Title Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
Author(s) Reitsma, MB
Fullman, N
Ng, M
Salama, JS
Abajobir, A
Abate, KH
Abbafati, C
Abera, SF
Abraham, B
Abyu, GY
Adebiyi, AO
Al-Aly, Z
Aleman, AV
Ali, R
Alkerwi, AA
Allebeck, P
Al-Raddadi, RM
Amare, AT
Amberbir, A
Ammar, W
Amrock, SM
Antonio, CAT
Asayesh, H
Atnafu, NT
Azzopardi, P
Banerjee, A
Barac, A
Barrientos-Gutierrez, T
Basto-Abreu, AC
Bazargan-Hejazi, S
Bedi, N
Bell, B
Bello, AK
Bensenor, IM
Beyene, AS
Bhala, N
Biryukov, S
Bolt, K
Brenner, H
Butt, Z
Cavalleri, F
Cercy, K
Chen, H
Christopher, DJ
Ciobanu, LG
Colistro, V
Colomar, M
Cornaby, L
Dai, X
Damtew, SA
Dandona, L
Dandona, R
Dansereau, E
Davletov, K
Dayama, A
Degfie, TT
Deribew, A
Dharmaratne, SD
DImtsu, BD
Doyle, KE
Endries, AY
Ermakov, SP
Estep, K
Faraon, EJA
Farzadfar, F
Feigin, VL
Feigl, AB
Fischer, F
Friedman, J
Ghiwot, TT
Gall, SL
Gao, W
Gillum, RF
Gold, AL
Gopalani, SV
Gotay, CC
Gupta, R
Gupta, R
Gupta, V
Hamadeh, RR
Hankey, G
Harb, HL
Hay, SI
Horino, M
Horita, N
Hosgood, HD
Husseini, A
Ileanu, BV
Islami, F
Jiang, G
Jiang, Y
Jonas, JB
Kabir, Z
Kamal, R
Kasaeian, A
Kesavachandran, CN
Khader, YS
Khalil, I
Khang, YH
Khera, S
Mekonnen, AORCID iD for Mekonnen, A orcid.org/0000-0002-6826-4817
Journal name The Lancet
Volume number 389
Issue number 10082
Start page 1885
End page 1906
Total pages 22
Publisher Elsevier
Place of publication Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Publication date 2017-05-13
ISSN 0140-6736
1474-547X
Keyword(s) Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Medicine, General & Internal
General & Internal Medicine
COMPARATIVE RISK-ASSESSMENT
TOBACCO CONTROL POLICIES
SELF-REPORTED SMOKING
FRAMEWORK CONVENTION
LIFE EXPECTANCY
HEALTH
MORTALITY
IMPACT
IMPLEMENTATION
PROMOTION
GBD 2015 Tobacco Collaborators
Summary Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·2-25·7) for men and 5·4% (5·1-5·7) for women, representing 28·4% (25·8-31·1) and 34·4% (29·4-38·6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11·5% of global deaths (6·4 million [95% UI 5·7-7·0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52·2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
Language eng
DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)30819-X
Indigenous content off
Field of Research 11 Medical and Health Sciences
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2017, The Author(s)
Free to Read? Yes
Use Rights Creative Commons Attribution licence
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30136678

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Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.