Predictive power of dependence measures for quitting smoking. Findings from the 2016 to 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping surveys

Le Grande, Michael, Borland, Ron, Yong, Hua-Hie, Cummings, K Michael, McNeill, Ann, Thompson, Mary E and Fong, Geoffrey T 2021, Predictive power of dependence measures for quitting smoking. Findings from the 2016 to 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping surveys, Nicotine and tobacco research, vol. 23, no. 2, pp. 276-285, doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntaa108.

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Title Predictive power of dependence measures for quitting smoking. Findings from the 2016 to 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping surveys
Author(s) Le Grande, Michael
Borland, Ron
Yong, Hua-HieORCID iD for Yong, Hua-Hie orcid.org/0000-0001-8167-6173
Cummings, K Michael
McNeill, Ann
Thompson, Mary E
Fong, Geoffrey T
Journal name Nicotine and tobacco research
Volume number 23
Issue number 2
Start page 276
End page 285
Total pages 10
Publisher Oxford University Press
Place of publication Oxford, Eng.
Publication date 2021-02
ISSN 1462-2203
1469-994X
Keyword(s) smoking
smoking cessation
addictive behaviour
demography
smoke
isolated tumor cells
vaping
smokers
Summary Introduction To test whether urges to smoke and perceived addiction to smoking have independent predictive value for quit attempts and short-term quit success over and above the Heaviness of Smoking Index (HSI). Aims and Methods Data were from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Wave 1 (2016) and Wave 2 (2018) surveys. About 3661 daily smokers (daily vapers excluded) provided data in both waves. A series of multivariable logistic regression models assessed the association of each dependence measure on odds of making a quit attempt and at least 1-month smoking abstinence. Results Of the 3661 participants, 1594 (43.5%) reported a quit attempt. Of those who reported a quit attempt, 546 (34.9%) reported short-term quit success. Fully adjusted models showed that making quit attempts was associated with lower HSI (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.73 to 0.90, p < .001), stronger urges to smoke (aOR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.20, p = .002), and higher perceived addiction to smoking (aOR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.32 to 0.84, p = .008). Lower HSI (aOR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.40 to 0.87, p < .001), weaker urges to smoke (aOR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.76 to 0.95, p = .006), and lower perceived addiction to smoking (aOR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.32 to 0.91, p = .021) were associated with greater odds of short-term quit success. In both cases, overall R2 was around 0.5. Conclusions The two additional dependence measures were complementary to HSI adding explanatory power to smoking cessation models, but variance explained remains small. Implications Strength of urges to smoke and perceived addiction to smoking may significantly improve prediction of cessation attempts and short-term quit success over and above routinely assessed demographic variables and the HSI. Stratification of analyses by age group is recommended because the relationship between dependence measures and outcomes differs significantly for younger (aged 18–39) compared to older (aged older than 40) participants. Even with the addition of these extra measures of dependence, the overall variance explained in predicting smoking cessation outcomes remains very low. These measures can only be thought of as assessing some aspects of dependence. Current understanding of the factors that ultimately determine quit success remains limited.
Language eng
DOI 10.1093/ntr/ntaa108
Indigenous content off
Field of Research 1103 Clinical Sciences
1117 Public Health and Health Services
1505 Marketing
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30145181

Document type: Journal Article
Collections: Faculty of Health
School of Psychology
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