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When does risk outweigh reward? Identifying potential scoring strategies with netball’s new two-point rule

Fox, Aaron and Bruce, Lyndell 2020, When does risk outweigh reward? Identifying potential scoring strategies with netball’s new two-point rule, PLoS One, vol. 15, no. 11, pp. 1-14, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242716.

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Title When does risk outweigh reward? Identifying potential scoring strategies with netball’s new two-point rule
Author(s) Fox, AaronORCID iD for Fox, Aaron orcid.org/0000-0002-5639-6388
Bruce, LyndellORCID iD for Bruce, Lyndell orcid.org/0000-0003-4652-5171
Journal name PLoS One
Volume number 15
Issue number 11
Article ID e0242716
Start page 1
End page 14
Total pages 14
Publisher PLOS
Place of publication San Francisco, CA
Publication date 2020-11-23
ISSN 1932-6203
1932-6203
Keyword(s) Sports
Probability density
Fatigue
Comparators
Probability distribution
Simulation and modeling
Decision making
Radii
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
PERFORMANCE
Summary Changing rules to promote scoring through more ‘high-risk’ play has become common in team sports. Australia’s national netball league (i.e. Suncorp Super Netball) has recently taken this approach–introducing a two-point shooting rule. Teams will be awarded two-points for shots made from an ‘outer circle’ 3.0m-4.9m from the goal in the final five minutes of quarters. We sought to answer a series of questions regarding the implementation and potential strategies surrounding the two-point rule in Suncorp Super Netball. We used video coded data from the 2018 Suncorp Super Netball season to identify the total number of made and missed shots from different distances across the season. We also used shooting statistics from recent Fast5 Netball World Series (a competition with a two-point shooting rule already in place) as a comparator. The reward of two-points is relatively well-aligned to the relative risk of missing shots from the proposed outer versus inner circle (2.22 [1.98, 2.48 95% CIs]) based on existing shooting data from Suncorp Super Netball teams. We found that the relative risk of missing shots from ‘long-’ (i.e. 3.5m-4.0m) versus ‘mid-range’ (i.e. 3.0–3.5m) was only slightly elevated (1.52 [1.21, 1.86 95% CIs])–suggesting teams should favour long- over mid-range shots when the two-point shot is available. Based on the typical number of shots a team receives in a five-minute period, we found that teams may be able to score ~3.51 extra points per quarter when taking all versus no-shots from the two-point outer circle. Analysis of the Fast5 versus Suncorp Super Netball data did, however, reveal that shooting accuracy from long-range may decrease when a two-point shot is available. Teams may need to consider situational factors (e.g. altered opposition defensive strategies) when developing their shooting strategy for taking advantage of the two-point shot.
Language eng
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0242716
Indigenous content off
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Copyright notice ©2020, Fox, Bruce
Free to Read? Yes
Use Rights Creative Commons Attribution licence
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30145711

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Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.