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Enhancement of bid decision-making in construction projects: a reliability analysis approach

Ghodoosi, Farzad, Bagchi, Ashutosh, Hosseini, Mohammad Reza, Vilutienė, Tatjana and Zeynalian, Mehran 2021, Enhancement of bid decision-making in construction projects: a reliability analysis approach, Journal of civil engineering and management, vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 149-161, doi: 10.3846/jcem.2021.14344.

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Title Enhancement of bid decision-making in construction projects: a reliability analysis approach
Author(s) Ghodoosi, Farzad
Bagchi, Ashutosh
Hosseini, Mohammad RezaORCID iD for Hosseini, Mohammad Reza orcid.org/0000-0001-8675-736X
Vilutienė, Tatjana
Zeynalian, Mehran
Journal name Journal of civil engineering and management
Volume number 27
Issue number 3
Start page 149
End page 161
Total pages 13
Publisher Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
Place of publication Vilnius, Lithuania
Publication date 2021
ISSN 1392-3730
1822-3605
Keyword(s) bid decision-making
reliability analysis
tender
contingency
risks
construction procurement
Summary Various risks significantly influence pricing of bids and a wide range of factors impact bid pricing risks. Of these, client’s reputation and the record of projects owned by a client have vital contribution on the issue. Current practices however fail to capture the impacts of client-related factors. There is a need for developing a practical quantitative approach, which enables estimators to process bid risk allocation easily. Through reliability analysis, the developed method proposed in this study enables practitioners to make informed bid/no-bid decisions based on estimating the probabilities of schedule and cost overruns. Estimating the probability of project failure enables estimators to quantify the risk element of bid price. In addition, schedule and cost overrun cumulative probability distributions can be used to estimate the expected value of these variables. The practicability of this proposed method is tested by empirical data obtained from 40 university construction projects of one client, for estimating the bid price of a low-rise building. For researchers, findings provide illuminating insight into the potential of using reliability analysis as a valuable tool for bid decision-making practices. So too, the proposed method offers a blueprint for estimating and calculating time and contingency – and managing associated risks – in planning construction projects. The contribution of this study for the world of practice lies in providing a simple, rapid and cost-effective method for bid decision-making processes.
Language eng
DOI 10.3846/jcem.2021.14344
Indigenous content off
Field of Research 0905 Civil Engineering
1202 Building
HERDC Research category C1 Refereed article in a scholarly journal
Free to Read? Yes
Persistent URL http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30149389

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Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that permission has been obtained for items included in DRO. If you believe that your rights have been infringed by this repository, please contact drosupport@deakin.edu.au.