A beginner's guide to avoiding bad policy mistakes in the Anthropocene

This chapter considers a range of alternative pathways which seek broadly to guide humanity safely through the Anthropocene era. The proponents of these pathways hold quite different worldviews and ideological positions, which are reflected in the diversity of these proposed responses to the challenges of the Anthropocene. The implications of these competing programs and visions for public policy are examined through the lens of optionality – the extent to which they maintain or maximise future freedom of action for humanity collectively, individually, and over time. The concept of optionality is shown to capture several important aspects of both agency and liberty, and to be of significant value in framing public policy under the very high levels of uncertainty inherent to an Anthropocene world. The chapter considers “ruin problems” and problems of irreversibility under different pathways; dilemmas of mutual exclusivity between pathways within and between nations; risks that certain pathways might dominate or preclude others; risks of economic dualism and accelerating inequalities under certain pathways; and moral hazard risks. Improving the ability of policy-makers to incorporate optionality into decision-making will be important to avoid potentially catastrophic errors of judgment.