Exploratory modelling of transitions: An emerging approach for coping with uncertainties in transitions research

Transitions research adopts a highly dynamic view to complex system transformations across multiple dimensions. This view incorporates deep uncertainties into the analytical process. The systematic treatment of these uncertainties, however, has remained underdeveloped in transitions research so far. This chapter focuses on the adoption of exploratory modelling - as an emerging computational approach for coping with uncertainties - to transitions. The chapter defines potential roles for exploratory modelling for understanding, policy insights and stakeholder processes in transitions research. The chapter also analyses the strengths and limitations of this approach in terms of coping with complexities, facilitating systematic experimentation and advancing policy analysis.