Intervention-driven predictive framework for modeling healthcare data

Assessing prognostic risk is crucial to clinical care, and critically dependent on both diagnosis and medical interventions. Current methods use this augmented information to build a single prediction rule. But this may not be expressive enough to capture differential effects of interventions on prognosis. To this end, we propose a supervised, Bayesian nonparametric framework that simultaneously discovers the latent intervention groups and builds a separate prediction rule for each intervention group. The prediction rule is learnt using diagnosis data through a Bayesian logistic regression. For inference, we develop an efficient collapsed Gibbs sampler. We demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines in predicting 30-day hospital readmission using two patient cohorts - Acute Myocardial Infarction and Pneumonia. The significance of this model is that it can be applied widely across a broad range of medical prognosis tasks. © 2014 Springer International Publishing.