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Hybrid neural-evolutionary model for electricity price forecasting
conference contribution
posted on 2011-01-01, 00:00 authored by D Srinivasan, Z Guofan, Abbas KhosraviAbbas Khosravi, Saeid Nahavandi, Douglas CreightonDouglas CreightonEvolving artificial neural networks has attracted much attention among researchers recently, especially in the fields where plenty of data exist but explanatory theories and models are lacking or based upon too many simplifying assumptions. Financial time series forecasting is one of them. A hybrid model is used to forecast the hourly electricity price from the California Power Exchange. A collaborative approach is adopted to combine ANN and evolutionary algorithm. The main contributions of this thesis include: Investigated the effect of changing values of several important parameters on the performance of the model, and selected the best combination of these parameters; good forecasting results have been obtained with the implemented hybrid model when the best combination of parameters is used. The lowest MAPE through a single run is 5. 28134%. And the lowest averaged MAPE over 10 runs is 6.088%, over 30 runs is 6.786%; through the investigation of the parameter period, it is found that by including future values of the homogenous moments of the instant being forecasted into the input vector, forecasting accuracy is greatly enhanced. A comparison of results with other works reported in the literature shows that the proposed model gives superior performance on the same data set.
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Event
International Joint Conference on Neural Network (2011 : San Jose, Calif.)Pagination
3164 - 3169Publisher
IEEELocation
San Jose, Calif.Place of publication
[San Jose, Calif.]Start date
2011-07-31End date
2011-08-05ISBN-13
9781457710865Language
engPublication classification
E1 Full written paper - refereedCopyright notice
2011, IEEETitle of proceedings
IJCNN 2011 : Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural NetworksUsage metrics
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